Forecast and Model Predictive Control of Distributed Energy Resource Aggregators for Net-Demand Balancing

arXiv:2606.06932v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: With the rapid demand for energy, even the incorporation of bulk renewable energy sources is not entirely sufficient to meet demand besides adding supply uncertainty. Distributed Energy Resource Aggregators (DERAs) have the potential to address this uncertainty via aggregation and control of decentralized distributed energy sources, thereby acting like virtual power plants. We present a new approach that combines forecasting and model-predictive control to assign DERAs to follow net-demand patterns, while accounting for the dynamics of the aggregate energy sources and their capacity limits. Each DERA is represented as a flexible ``virtual battery" with constraints on state-of-charge and power limits. The dispatch problem is set up as a long-term model predictive control task that aims to minimize differences from desired charge levels, output ramping, and net-load tracking errors. To keep operations efficient in real time, we implement a rolling-horizon MPC, which updates decisions regularly using the latest marginal-demand forecasts. For forecasting, we present two models: linear regression and long-short term memory (LSTM) neural network. Using high-resolution CAISO net-demand data and five typical DERA types, our simulations demonstrate how well our approach tracks marginal-demand; in particular, we highlight the tradeoffs between forecasting horizon times and MPC update rate as well as the dependence on the choice of the load forecasting model. Our results also indicate a slight edge for LSTM models over linear regression for desired time shifts and horizon choices.