Why Keir Starmer’s allies still think he could win a Labour leadership election against Andy Burnham

Why Keir Starmer’s allies still think he could win a Labour leadership election against Andy Burnham ‘Labour members are not Corbynistas any more, many of them joined because of Keir’ - Bookmark - CommentsGo to comments At the end of this week, Sir Keir Starmer will face what many in Labour believe will be the biggest test of his premiership so far – and one which he could struggle to survive. The prime minister has shown remained defiant in the last month, repeatedly insisting he will not “walk away” from the job. But since Labour’s disastrous local election results in May, half a dozen ministers have quit his government and nearly 100 of his own MPs have either called for him to go or demanded a timetable for his departure. And, if Andy Burnham decisively wins the Makerfield by-election in the early hours of Friday morning, his supporters are expected to push for a swift transition to the man they see as Labour’s best hope to turn around the party’s fortunes – and prevent Nigel Farage reaching No 10. But some allies of the prime minister are encouraging him to battle on, arguing there is a path in which he could fight – and even potentially win – a Labour leadership election against Mr Burnham, despite the Greater Manchester mayor’s popularity. The key, they say, are the rules which govern any Labour leadership contest and the current membership of the party – as well as two-time loser Mr Burnham’s track record. Unlike his rivals, including Mr Burnham, Sir Keir would not have to canvas the support of 80-odd Labour MPs to get on the ballot paper. Instead, as the serving party leader, he would have an automatic space. That means Sir Keir could effectively bypass Labour MPs and direct his message straight to the Labour membership – who, alongside affiliated supporters, will have the final say in any contest. Backers of the PM point to the make-up of Labour members as a reason he could win. “Labour members are not Corbynistas any more, many of them joined because of Keir. They like him”, one ally told The Independent. Labour has lost almost 200,000 members in the past five years, according to its most recent annual accounts, falling from a peak of 532,046 at the end of 2019 to 333,235 at the end of last year, as many of the more left-leaning pro-Corbyn members quit. Allies of Sir Keir also point to polls of the membership which suggest that, while Mr Burnham would be far and away the clear favourite at the start of any contest, the politician who comes closest to him is Sir Keir. A recent YouGov poll found that 47 per cent of members rank Mr Burnham as their first choice, followed by 31 per cent for Sir Keir. The third-placed, Angela Rayner, trailed far behind on just 8 per cent. Finally, allies of Sir Keir point to the fact that Mr Burnham has already lost a Labour leadership contest – not once, but twice. The first was in 2010 and then also in 2015, when he was considered the early favourite. That year, he came a far second behind Jeremy Corbyn – on 19 per cent compared to the winner’s 60 per cent of the vote. In contrast, they point to Sir Keir’s victory, albeit in very different circumstances in 2020, when the original “special conference” to announce the result had to be cancelled because the UK was already in lockdown. A leadership contest would also see both men put under more pressure than the man dubbed the ‘King of the North’ has faced in recent years, they argue, which could dent his popularity. For now, most of Westminster assumes that, if there is a leadership contest, it will be won by Mr Burnham. But Sir Keir’s allies believe Labour members may yet end up having other ideas. Join our commenting forum Join thought-provoking conversations, follow other Independent readers and see their replies Comments