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Bounded by Risk, Not Capability: Quantifying AI Occupational Substitution Rates via a Tech-Risk Dual-Factor Model

Announce Type: replace Abstract: The deployment of Large Language Models (LLMs) has ignited concerns about technological unemployment. Existing task-based evaluations predominantly measure theoretical "exposure" to AI capabilities, ignoring critical frictions of real-world commercial adoption: liability, compliance, and physical safety. We argue occupations are not eradicated instantaneously, but gradually encroached upon via atomic actions.

arXiv CS 1d ago