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The Evaluation Blind Spot: A Stereological Theory of Benchmark Coverage for Large Language Models
arXiv:2606.05169v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We give a stereological theory of LLM benchmark coverage. For any suite with effective dimensionality d_eff, the visible Hausdorff distance between two convex capability profiles consistent with the same scores is bounded by epsilon + C R m^(-1/(d_eff-1)), with matching Lipschitz lower bound. Empirically, three independent leaderboards (Open LLM v2, an extended 12-benchmark suite, LiveBench) all have d_eff in [2.86, 4.80] on their competitive...