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Information-Theoretic Bounds for Sparse Covariance Estimation in the Vertical-Split Distributed Model

Announce Type: new Abstract: We study the minimax estimation error for distributed covariance matrix estimation in the vertical-split (feature-split) setting, where two agents each observe different coordinates of $m$ i.i.d. and communicate a limited number of bits to a central server. [2025] established nearly tight bounds for dense (unstructured) cross-covariance matrices, we investigate whether imposing elementwise $s$-sparsity on the cross-covariance $C_{21}$ can reduce the required...

arXiv CS 2d ago

Conditional Hypothesis Generation for LLM-Based Text Analysis with Researcher-Specified Covariates

Announce Type: new Abstract: A core goal of computational social science is to discover interpretable differences in how language varies across outcomes of interest, such as political affiliation or instructional quality. Recent LLM-based hypothesis generation methods describe such differences in natural language, but select for globally discriminative patterns without accounting for covariates that shape the data based on researchers' domain knowledge. When covariates are ignored, selected...

arXiv CS 7d ago

Cellwise and Casewise Robust Covariance in High Dimensions

Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: The sample covariance matrix is a cornerstone of multivariate statistics, but it is highly sensitive to outliers. These can be casewise outliers, such as cases belonging to a different population, or cellwise outliers, which are deviating cells (entries) of the data matrix. Recently some robust covariance estimators have been developed that can handle both types of outliers, but their computation is only feasible up to at most 20 dimensions.

arXiv CS 8d ago

From Local Geometry to Global Pseudo Labeling for Robust Positive Unlabeled Learning under Covariate Shift

arXiv:2605.31187v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Detecting covariate shift is critical for building reliable vision systems. While most prior work focuses on improving robustness to shift, explicitly detecting covariate shift remains underexplored. Existing approaches typically rely on fully supervised training, requiring labeled examples from both original and shifted distributions, which is often impractical.

arXiv CS 9d ago

Covariance Shrinkage via Stochastic Interpolation

arXiv:2606.07382v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We recast classical shrinkage of high-dimensional covariance estimators as empirical risk minimization over a parametric stochastic interpolant between a source and a target distribution. This formalism recovers known shrinkage estimators as special cases and reveals three distinct mechanisms for reducing statistical risk: (i) Scheduling: the interpolant schedule determines the class of admissible covariances, and hence the achievable risk....

arXiv CS 2d ago

Do covariates explain why these groups differ? The choice of reference group can reverse conclusions in the Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition

arXiv:2603.29972v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Scientists often want to explain why an outcome is different in two groups. For instance, differences in patient mortality rates across two hospitals could be due to differences in the patients themselves (covariates) or differences in medical care (outcomes given covariates). The Oaxaca--Blinder decomposition (OBD) is a standard tool to tease apart these factors.

arXiv CS 9d ago

An Exponentially stable Extended Kalman Filter with Estimate dependent Process noise Covariance for Chemical Reaction Networks

Announce Type: replace Abstract: Biomolecular systems are often modeled with partially known nonlinear stochastic dynamics, making state and parameter estimation a central challenge. While Kalman filtering techniques are widely used in this setting, their performance critically depends on the choice of the process noise covariance, which is typically assumed constant and heuristically tuned. Such assumptions are not justified for biomolecular systems, where intrinsic noise arises from...

arXiv CS 2d ago

Generative Frontier Planning for Adaptive Peer-Referral Recruitment under Covariate-Dependent Arrivals

arXiv:2606.08360v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Peer-referral recruitment systems such as respondent-driven sampling are critical for studying and intervening on hidden populations affected by infectious diseases. To accelerate recruitment, public health agencies must adaptively allocate limited referral resources across multiple rounds, where current decisions shape both the number and the covariates of future recruits. Prior work makes this problem tractable by assuming that referrals are...

arXiv CS 1d ago

Modeling Covariate Transition for Efficient Estimation of Longitudinal Treatment Effects in Randomized Experiments

arXiv:2605.31443v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We present a regression-adjustment framework designed for the estimation of longitudinal treatment effects in randomized experiments under static regimes. While regression-adjustment methods are useful for variance reduction in randomized experiments by using pre-treatment covariates, they usually focus only on average effects, from which we cannot obtain valuable insights into when the effects appear and how long they continue. To address...

arXiv CS 9d ago

Divergence is Uncertainty: A Closed-Form Posterior Covariance for Flow Matching

Announce Type: replace Abstract: Flow matching has become a leading framework for generative modeling, but quantifying the uncertainty of its samples remains an open problem. Existing approaches retrain the model with auxiliary variance heads, maintain costly ensembles, or propagate approximate covariance through many integration steps, trading off training cost, inference cost, or accuracy.

arXiv CS 8d ago