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Predictable Compression Failures: Order Sensitivity and Information Budgeting for Evidence-Grounded Binary Adjudication
arXiv:2509.11208v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Transformers used for evidence-grounded binary adjudication (e.g., support/refute, yes/no, or verifier-backed pass/fail decisions) can be sensitive to the order in which exchangeable evidence is presented, producing dispersion across permutations and unreliable attempted answers under a verifier-relative Bernoulli predicate. We treat evidence order as a nuisance variable and formalize an expectation-realization gap: next-token...