EUPPBench

Improving the sharpness in neural network-based parametric post-processing of ensemble forecasts

arXiv:2606.08587v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Statistical post-processing has proven to be an effective tool in improving ensemble forecast of different weather variables. Case studies show that post-processing can remedy the typically underdispersive and potentially biased behaviour of the ensemble while optimizing a proper scoring rule expressing the forecast skill. The price of these positive effects is generally a deterioration in sharpness; the width of the central prediction...