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Prescriptive Scaling Reveals the Evolution of Language Model Capabilities
arXiv:2602.15327v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Machine learning model performance improvements tend to arise from competition and application. For deployment, we consider prescriptive scaling laws: given a pre-training compute budget, what downstream accuracy is attainable with contemporary post-training practice, and how stable is that mapping as the field evolves? Using large-scale observational evaluations with 5k existing and 2k newly evaluated model checkpoints spanning 2022-2026...