TU Dortmund University
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2026 World Cup: Spain in the lead, but title race remains wide open
Ahead of major soccer tournaments, a research team led by Achim Zeileis of the University of Innsbruck and Andreas Groll of TU Dortmund University calculates the chances of winning for all participating teams. For the 2026 World Cup in Canada, Mexico, and the United States, their model identifies Spain as the slight favorite with 14.5%. Closely behind are England (12.4%), France (12.4%), and Germany (11.2%).