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TRACE: A Temporal Conditional Estimation for Multimodal Time Series Foundation Models
arXiv:2606.06285v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Time series foundation models (TS-FMs) aim to learn generalizable temporal representations that can be adapted to a wide range of downstream tasks. In real-world multimodal settings, time series are frequently affected by temporal misalignment and partial modality missingness, where different modalities are observed at heterogeneous time scales or are partially absent. Existing approaches typically rely on naive imputation or masking...
GLIDE: Graph-guided Leap Inference for Diffusion Estimation of Spatio-Temporal Point Processes
arXiv:2606.01273v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Spatio-temporal point processes (STPPs) provide a principled framework for modeling asynchronous events in continuous time and space. Recent diffusion-based approaches offer a flexible alternative to deterministic prediction by modeling complex conditional distributions, but their application to STPPs remains challenging: reverse sampling from pure noise is costly, and weak structural constraints in sparse spatial domains can lead to poorly...
Parallel Complex Diffusion for Scalable Time Series Generation
Announce Type: replace Abstract: Diffusion models learn data distributions indirectly through denoising, making the difficulty of generative modeling closely tied to the dependency structure of data. For time series, strong temporal dependence forces the noise / score estimator to recover highly entangled cross-time relationships, leading to the curse of entanglement. We mitigate this burden by changing the topology of the diffusion space: the Discrete Fourier Transform (DFT) decomposes...
EgoPressDiff: Multimodal Video Diffusion for Egocentric UV-Domain Hand-Pressure Estimation
arXiv:2606.06872v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Estimating hand-surface contact pressure from an egocentric view is crucial for AR/VR devices, robotic imitation, and ergonomic analysis. Existing methods often discretize pressure signal and process frames independently, leading to quantization errors and temporal inconsistencies. We present \emph{EgoPressDiff}, a conditional video diffusion framework that generates UV-pressure maps from visual input.
Deep learning four decades of human migration
Abstract Human migration is a fundamental driver of global demographic change, shaping population structure, labour markets and social policy across countries1,2,3. Although long-term migration patterns are often linked to economic development4, they can shift rapidly in response to shocks such as conflict, environmental crises and political change5. Despite its importance, migration remains difficult to measure consistently: existing data are sparse, concentrated in high-income settings and...
TALON: Token-Aligned Lightweight Adapters for 6-DoF Spacecraft Pose Estimation
new Abstract: Monocular 6-DoF spacecraft pose estimation methods predominantly process individual frames, discarding the temporal information present in an image sequence acquired during spacecraft manoeuvres. Few temporal approaches require full backbone fine-tuning or auxiliary optical flow networks, risking catastrophic forgetting or increasing computational cost, respectively. We propose TALON (Token-Aligned Lightweight adapters for Orbital Navigation): spatiotemporal 3D adapters...
SVL: Goal-Conditioned Reinforcement Learning as Survival Learning
arXiv:2604.17551v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Standard approaches to goal-conditioned reinforcement learning (GCRL) that rely on temporal-difference learning can be unstable and sample-inefficient due to bootstrapping. While recent work has explored contrastive and supervised formulations to improve stability, we present a probabilistic alternative, called survival value learning (SVL), that reframes GCRL as a survival learning problem by modeling the time-to-goal from each state as a...
Towards Unified and Data-Efficient Prognostics and Health Management with Tabular Foundation Models
Announce Type: new Abstract: Data-driven Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) uses time-varying condition-monitoring data to diagnose system states and estimate remaining useful life in engineered assets. These tasks are central to maintenance planning, but industrial PHM data are often fragmented, partially observed, and poorly labeled, which hinders supervised learning. Foundation models offer a route toward reusable predictive systems, yet most time-series foundation models are...
Which Leakage Types Matter? A Quantitative Landscape Across 2,047 Benchmark Datasets
arXiv:2604.04199v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Twenty-eight within-subject counterfactual experiments across 2,047 iid tabular datasets, plus a boundary experiment on 129 temporal datasets, measure the severity of four data leakage classes in machine learning. Class I (estimation: fitting scalers on full data) is negligible: all nine conditions produce $|{\Delta}AUC| \leq 0.005$. Class II (selection: peeking, seed cherry-picking) is substantial: the measured effect is consistent with...
A Temporal Spatial Minimax Rate for Smoothly-Varying Distributions in Wasserstein Space
arXiv:2606.07325v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We study the minimax rate of estimating a future value $\mu_{t_n+h}$ of a curve $t\mapsto\mu_t$ in the $2$-Wasserstein space $\mathcal{P}_2(\mathbb{R}^d)$ from finitely many noisy snapshots of its past, under an adiabatic bound $\|\nabla_t^k v\|\le\varepsilon$ on the $k$-th covariant derivative of the velocity field. Our central result is a unified temporal-spatial minimax lower bound: over regular, locally transport-rich subclasses, every...