Hashprice moderates the electricity demand response of Bitcoin miners

arXiv:2606.00587v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Large controllable loads, such as Bitcoin-mining facilities, are increasingly viewed as valuable sources of power-system flexibility, yet the conditions under which this flexibility is realized remain poorly understood. We examine this issue in the Texas power market, where large loads face both wholesale electricity prices and incentives created by coincident-peak-based transmission charges. We find that mining load declines as costs rise across both channels, and this response is moderated by hashprice, a measure of expected revenue for Bitcoin miners. When hashprice is higher, mining load is less responsive to electricity-sector costs. This pattern is consistent with aggregate mining load arising from heterogeneous devices operated around distinct breakeven points. The wholesale-price response illustrates this mechanism most clearly. Mining load remains largely online at low electricity prices but begins to decline once prices exceed an implied curtailment threshold, and higher hashprice shifts this threshold to higher wholesale prices. Bitcoin miners therefore respond to electricity-sector costs, but the available flexibility varies with revenue conditions in the crypto-financial sector. Treating such loads as stable demand-response resources may overstate their available flexibility.