What is Godzilla El Niño?

What is Godzilla El Niño? Lisa Lock Scientific Editor Robert Egan Associate Editor You may have heard the rumors of a "monster El Niño." It's not the first time we've heard forecasts like this in Australia, but this time, they aren't coming out of nowhere. Early signs in the Pacific have been building for months and forecasts now point to a high likelihood of a moderate to strong El Niño developing in 2026. But even so, a big El Niño does not necessarily mean a big dry for Australia. This week, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) confirmed what scientists have been speculating: there is around an 80% chance El Niño will develop by mid-year, rising to nearly 90% later in the year. We're seeing warm ocean waters feeding the system, the atmosphere beginning to respond and forecast models starting to line up. So, this is no longer a weak signal. An El Niño is now likely, and it could become strong. But that doesn't necessarily make its impacts straightforward. What is El Niño? El Niño—to give it its full scientific name, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)—matters because it basically reorganizes the climate system. The term refers to the warming of the ocean which leads to a major shift in weather patterns across the Pacific that can, in turn, influence global temperatures. Trade winds weaken, upwelling slows and rainfall systems follow the warmer water. It reshapes major circulation patterns, redistributing rainfall and temperature. The vast amount of heat stored in the tropical ocean often pushes global temperatures higher, as more heat is transferred from the ocean into the atmosphere. The most recent El Niño in 2023–24 was among the five strongest on record and contributed to the record global temperatures in 2024. Even a moderate El Niño can increase the risk of heat waves, floods and droughts in some parts of the world, while causing more severe storms and flooding in others. A stronger El Niño can amplify those risks further, increasing the likelihood of more extreme weather. But in Australia, the story is different In Australia, El Niño is often linked to drier-than-average conditions, especially in the east. So, when we hear the words "monster El Niño" it obviously raises concerns about drought. The Millennium Drought, one of the most severe and prolonged dry spells in Australia's recorded history, coincided with several El Niño events. We go back a bit further, to the 1982–83 El Niño, which is remembered for widespread dry conditions and major impacts across the country. But averages only tell part of the story. When you look at individual events, the relationship becomes much less tidy. Some El Niño events coincide with dry conditions, others do not. Some of the strongest events on record have delivered near-average rainfall across large parts of the country. Apart from South-Eastern Australia, departures from average are often modest rather than extreme. So, the strength of an El Niño event doesn't translate neatly into impact. There can be a strong temptation to treat El Niño like a dial: the stronger it becomes, the more severe the impacts. But for Australia, that link is weak. Looking across past events shows no clear relationship between El Niño strength and Australian rainfall. Big El Niños may make the headlines but make poor rainfall forecasts. Modern seasonal forecast models aim to capture complexity that simple narratives miss by simulating the full climate system with ocean, atmosphere and land to provide probabilistic outlooks. What should Australians take from this? A moderate to strong El Niño is now likely. That matters and is worth paying attention to. Paying close attention to the latest seasonal outlook provided by the Bureau of Meteorology is key to get the best forecast of conditions. Looking at the approaching winter, Australia is very likely to experience a warmer-than-average winter, with some areas also drier than usual, but this is not an extreme drought signal. El Niño is a risk factor, not a forecast. Even with a strong event, what happens across Australia will depend on how multiple parts of the climate system come together. So yes, Godzilla El Niño may be real, but that still doesn't mean Australia is locked into a big dry. Provided by University of Melbourne This article was first published on Pursuit. Read the original article here.