Learning and Inferring Multiphase Flow Dynamics in Porous Media using Scientific Machine Learning: Application to the "FluidFlower" CO2 Injection Experiment

arXiv:2606.05448v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Accurate prediction and parameter identification of multiphase flow in porous media remain central challenges in geological carbon dioxide storage due to strong nonlinearities, high-dimensional parameter spaces, and limited observational data. We present a machine learning framework that integrates surrogate modeling and Bayesian inference to enable efficient forward prediction and inverse parameter estimation for CO2-brine flows in geological media. The approach is demonstrated using the "FluidFlower" experimental rig, a controlled laboratory system that provides high-resolution, time-resolved observations of CO2 migration in heterogeneous porous media. A convolutional neural network surrogate is trained on high-fidelity numerical simulations to learn the evolution of CO2 saturation and dissolved CO2 concentration fields over a wide range of multiphase flow properties. The trained surrogate is embedded within a Markov chain Monte Carlo framework for parameter inference conditioned on experimental observations. Results show that the surrogate accurately captures large-scale CO2 plume migration, dissolution dynamics, and multiphase flow behavior while providing orders-of-magnitude acceleration compared to traditional simulations. Embedding the surrogate within a Bayesian framework enables computationally tractable exploration of the parameter space and reveals both identifiable and non-identifiable parameter combinations that produce similar plume behavior. By leveraging spatially and temporally resolved full-field observations, the framework substantially improves agreement between simulations and experiments compared to previous manual calibrations based on limited plume-scale metrics. Analysis using progressively increasing observation horizons further shows that observations become more informative once the plume interacts with geological features such as faults and sealing layers.