Declines in research funding and science ecosystem fragility

arXiv:2606.09387v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Scientific knowledge advances through within-country and cross-border scientific activities and collaborations, influenced by funding and strength of research enterprise. Sudden declines in research funding, for example from Federal sources in the United States (US) 2024-25, adversely impact on scientific collaboration. How rapid declines in funding affect the science enterprise and the magnitude of impact need to be analysed. Past studies have modelled the global scientific system as complex collaborative networks of entities and studied its topology and dynamics. However, these studies have not undertaken compensation analysis to real-world shocks that have produced rapid declines in scientific research funding. In this study we examine the effect of the sharp declines in the US Federal funding on cancer science research enterprise globally. We model the cancer science ecosystem as a 5-layer multiplex network of collaborative linkages between 233 countries and territories in grants and clinical trial co-investigations, paper co-authorships, co-inventions and patent co-ownerships. We quantify information flow in the multiplex system through network efficiency. Proposing a framework for compensation analysis, we show that sharp declines in US Federal funding for research degrade global information exchange in science, imposing outsized compensatory burdens on country groups such as the European Union (EU) and BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa). However, we also show that if other countries provide more support for international collaborations, there is an opportunity to remodel the cancer science system to be more resilient to future shocks.