Tuning Dispatch Thresholds for Fixed Last-Mile Routes: A Simulation-Based Pareto Analysis of a Production Policy

arXiv:2606.09455v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Many parcel networks dispatch vehicles on \emph{fixed routes} using a simple load-accumulation rule: a truck leaves the depot for a fixed route as soon as the volume (or item count) waiting for that route crosses a threshold. The threshold is usually parameterised as an affine function of route length, $\tau_r=\beta+\gamma\,d_r$, and the pair $(\beta,\gamma)$ is chosen once and frozen into production. This paper studies how good that frozen choice actually is, treating the question as a data-intensive, data-driven decision-making problem over a full month of real operational flow. Using a discrete-event simulator that replays the recorded arrival stream and reconstructs every trip, we sweep the $(\beta,\gamma)$ design space, evaluate the two competing objectives -- company operating cost and average parcel lead time -- and recover the Pareto frontier of efficient policies for two deployed variants (volume-triggered and item-count-triggered). The two policies turn out to be in strikingly different states of tune. The volume-threshold configuration lies on its own Pareto frontier: the simulator finds no $(\beta,\gamma)$ pair that strictly dominates it, so the deployed policy is \emph{already Pareto-efficient} -- an unusual positive audit result. The item-count configuration is the opposite: it is dominated by a concrete simulated configuration that is both faster and cheaper, and the available cost saving at equal lead time is about \num{5.0}\,\pct{}. We trace the item-count policy's inefficiency to a base that is too large and a length coefficient that is too small for the deployed truck capacity, and show that a \emph{steeper} threshold -- lower base, higher slope -- is preferable. Because the remedy is a two-scalar reconfiguration, the analysis converts directly into an actionable, zero-capital recurring saving.