AI Scientists Are Only as Good as Their Evidence: A Stratified Ablation of Proprietary Data and Reasoning Skills in Drug-Asset Valuation

arXiv:2606.09556v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: AI Scientist agents are often evaluated as if capability were mainly a function of model quality, prompting, or reasoning scaffolds. We test a different hypothesis in drug-asset valuation: for knowledge-intensive scientific decisions, the limiting factor is often the evidence substrate the agent can access. We run a controlled three-arm ablation on a production valuation agent: A is a plain web-only LLM analyst, B adds public structured tools plus a 14-dimension valuation playbook, verifier, objectivity policy and red-team, and C adds the proprietary Noah AI corpus of curated pipeline, trial and deal intelligence. Across a 13-asset stratified benchmark, B improves calibration and audit discipline: tier-in-range accuracy rises from 0.80 to 0.89 and objectivity from 3.16 to 3.30. But B does not remove the factual ceiling. Under capability-superset accounting, A and B recover only 0.25 and 0.38 of the curated gold competitive record, while C recovers 0.96; on the curated long-tail subset, C reaches 0.93 vs. 0.26/0.30. Raw blind-panel decision quality is similar for A and B (7.01 vs. 6.96), so we introduce completeness-aware decision utility: informed decision-quality = decision-quality x gold-coverage. On this metric, C reaches 7.43 vs. 1.76/2.57 for A/B. Even a perfect non-proprietary-data report would be capped at 3.83 by B's coverage. The result is not that reasoning scaffolds are unimportant; they improve calibration and discipline. Rather, proprietary evidence sets the upper bound of what the AI Scientist can know and therefore decide.