The Amazon can be saved — with concerted action inside and outside Brazil

During the first term of president Luiz Inacio ‘Lula’ da Silva in 2003–11, the Brazilian administration slashed deforestation rates in the Amazon, all but eliminating the large-scale conversion of rainforest into cattle pasture and soya plantations. There’s a lesson here for other world leaders: with eyes in space and law enforcement on the ground, governments can help to tame seemingly insatiable market forces, even across one of the planet’s largest agricultural frontiers. Lula, who has been back in office since 2023, is aiming for a repeat performance on saving the forest, which has lost some 15% of its original total area. Initial evidence suggests that he might be succeeding. The extent of annual deforestation has fallen by more than 50% since his re-election and is once again approaching record lows. The news comes as the latest research indicates that the forest might also be surprisingly resilient to climate change, but only if deforestation is kept in check. Together, continued deforestation and worsening global warming could tip the scales and cause the rainforest to die back, releasing its carbon into the atmosphere and potentially boosting global temperatures further. Robust projections of risks to the Amazon rainforest The fact that deforestation is declining once again is a welcome change after several years of increases under Lula’s predecessor, Jair Bolsonaro, who slashed environmental protections in the Amazon. Rates of tree felling shot up to the highest levels in more than a decade during his tenure. The recent progress in Brazil isn’t limited to the Amazon biome, either. A 27 May analysis by MapBiomas, a network of academic researchers, technology firms and non-governmental organizations, found that deforestation is decreasing in biomes across the country (see go.nature.com/4dzxpyy). Research published in early May provides further reasons for hope. A team led by Nico Wunderling at Goethe University Frankfurt in Germany, combined Earth-system, hydrological and other models to explore what might happen to the Amazon under various development and warming scenarios1. The results indicate that, if left to itself, the forest would remain resilient even in the face of significant warming (of more than 3 °C above pre-industrial levels), with serious dieback only beginning once temperatures hit 3.7–4 °C above pre-industrial levels. That picture changes, however, if deforestation continues unchecked. The models show that, once 22–28% of the total forest has been cleared, there would be dieback across much of the Amazon basin even if global warming is limited to 1.5–1.9 ° C — a level that the world is rapidly approaching. These results complement those of previous studies2,3. For more than two decades, scientists have been studying whether the Amazon forest might eventually dry out and merge with the Cerrado, the tropical savannah on the southeastern side of the rainforest, if global warming continues. Extending from the Andes foothills to the Atlantic Ocean, the forest is big enough to create its own weather. The rain that blows in from the ocean is repeatedly recycled as trees trap water and release it back into the atmosphere. That water then falls as rain once again and the cycle repeats. Interrupt this process through permanent land-use change, fires and logging, and the whole system can break down. All of this means that the race is on to achieve two objectives that could save the Amazon. Lula must reach his goal of eliminating illegal deforestation in the region by the end of 2030, and the international community must redouble its efforts to limit global warming. For now at least, deforestation rates are going in the right direction, but there are immediate and medium-term challenges. Even with the best of intentions, eliminating illegal deforestation is likely to get harder, not easier. Read the paper: Deforestation-induced drying lowers Amazon climate threshold From August 2024 to July 2025, some 5,700 square kilometres of the Amazon were cut down, according to the latest official tally by Brazil’s National Institute for Space Research. This compares with an annual average of nearly 9,000 square kilometres over the past decade. More than one-third of the remaining forest has been degraded by disturbances such as logging and extreme drought. Researchers have documented evidence that the southeastern Amazon, where development pressures are strongest, is transitioning from a sink to a source of carbon emissions4. As large-scale deforestation declines, the government’s focus is expected to shift towards curbing smaller-scale deforestation, which is more dispersed — more small actors across a wider area are harder to manage. In addition to agriculture, the government must also tackle illegal mining and, increasingly, coca plantations, which feed the drug trade. Lula is also facing other internal challenges. Controversially, his government is planning to tarmac a major unpaved road in the heart of the Amazon that would only increase development pressure. Historically, better access has translated into more deforestation. This is also an election year in Brazil, and there remains opposition to environmental protection across parties in the Brazilian Congress. Just last month, its lower house, the Chamber of Deputies, passed legislation that would limit the ability of the government’s environmental agency to base its enforcement actions against deforestation on satellite data. Brazil has an opportunity to lead the rescue of the world’s largest rainforest. Research shows that the forest can be resilient, but that it has limits. Leadership at all levels is needed to continue driving deforestation down. The whole planet will benefit from this success.