How to bet the RBC Canadian Open: Can Rai's elite ...

TPC Toronto (North) is about creating birdie opportunities, and that's the separator this week at the RBC Canadian Open. Last year, Ryan Fox won the tournament at -18, and at this tournament you need a player that has distance and solid iron play, gives himself birdie looks and makes those shots when chances are given. The course has four reachable par 5s and numerous approaches from 175-plus. Last year showed that there are multiple ways to contend, but almost every path started with creating an advantage off the tee. With that in mind, here are the players I like to contend this week. Odds by DraftKings Sportsbook (with ties) and subject to change. Best bets Aaron Rai: Top 20 +150 (with ties) Full odds: Top 10 +320 Top 5 +670 To win +4100 He's the ultimate ball-striking-versus-distance test this week. Rai is fifth on approach and tee-to-green, but 127th in driving distance. In its first year hosting the Canadian Open, this course rewarded power and par 5 scoring. What Rai lacks in distance, he makes up for via elite iron play, and his comp course history supports that. Rai has multiple Top 10 finishes in Detroit, at TPC Craig Ranch and Memorial Park -- all courses that favor birdie creation and strong approach play. He didn't play Toronto last year which adds some uncertainty for a Top 20 market, but Rai is a player that can create enough birdie looks to hang around the top of the leaderboard. Jackson Suber: Top 40 +156 Full odds: Top 30 +230 Top 20 +445 Top 10 +1025 Top 5 +2350 To win +18500 In a weaker field, I like to look at players that the market perhaps hasn't fully caught on yet who have a shot at breaking out. In three different comp courses, he showcased repeatability with three Top 20 finishes just striping his irons and making putts. Same course style, same result. Suber's value certainly lies with the Top 40 market because birdie fests add so much more variance but since his case is built around scoring contests, his profile could actually be best for a Top 20. I'm conservative, so I'll take the bigger net. A player can gain multiple strokes from tee to green and still finish T45 if the putter disappears. But at +156, the calculation is backing a player who's already he can succeed on this style of golf course multiple times. Other bets and DFS advice Play: Johnny Keefer $7,600, and Top 40 +106 Similar to Suber, both the upside and floor is there, but Keefer comes with more volatility because he did miss the cut in last year's stint in Canada. What stands out: he's ripping his irons as of late, but that's an extremely small sample size because he wasn't prior to the start of the month. He has the distance (ninth in the field), has been consistent off the tee, seems to have found something with his approach shots and is bleeding less with the putter. However, his around the green game is horrible, which I'm overlooking because it's almost irrelevant until proven otherwise. The leaderboard last year didn't show that this was a scrambling content. If a guy needs around the green to survive, then he's already missing too many greens anyway. +106 for a Top 40 doesn't excite much, which I like as a wager, but putting him in your lineup -- a player capable of popping off a top 10 finish -- is worth a consideration. The missed cut last year that Keefer lost with his irons? His recent form shows that it was a blip. Play: Nicolai Hojgaard $9,100 In fantasy, you're looking for ceiling players -- and that's Hojgaard. He's fourth in distance, third in par 5 scoring, has birdie production and finished runner-up in Houston gaining seven strokes with his irons. His profile is capable of a spike week, which makes him interesting for an outright win because a winning score of -18 is much more his environment than a winning score of -8. The upside is real. Fade: Eric Cole $8,000 Cole's recent form is excellent, with four top 10s in his last five starts. So why is he priced at only $8,000? Course fit comes into play. Where are the birdies coming from? His putting and short game, making it a fragile path to a win. TPC Toronto is for players who can reach par 5s easier, hit shorter approach shots and attack with their irons. When the course gets easier, Cole's relative edge dissipates. He has neither the driving distance or the accuracy off the tee, but TPC is still a 7,400 yard par 70 with four reachable par 5s and multiple 450-plus yard par 4s. Distance matters. Matt McCarty finished T4 last year, and first in putting. If Cole pops, it's because he's this year's McCarty. The argument against him is win equity. How to play Sam Burns Top 10 +138 vs. $10,100 in fantasy Burns checks both sides of the scoring equation: he creates opportunities and converts on those opportunities. He finished runner-up here while gaining nearly five strokes on approach and five strokes putting. Burns can handle the course's demand to go low (sixth in birdie or better percentage and first in the field in putting), coming off his best iron play of the season at Aronimink. Between the two, Top 10 at +138 is the way to go over $10,100 in fantasy. (For reference, his top 20 is -144.) At this salary, Burns must be a lineup differentiator. The Top 10 (with ties) lets you capitalize on his upside without paying a premium for a win.