World will cross 1.5°C warming limit by 2030 if emissions continue at current rate - report

The rate of human-induced warming remains at an all-time high, according to the latest Indicators of Global Climate Change report. The world is edging dangerously close to the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C warming threshold, with human-induced warming reaching 1.37°C in 2025, a major new report warns. If emissions continue at current levels, the 1.5°C limit will be crossed around 2030, according to the analysis by more than 70 scientists from 56 institutions across 17 countries. The fourth edition of the Indicators of Global Climate Change (IGCC), published today (11 June) in the journal Earth System Science Data, tracks the key measurements that tell us how fast the climate is changing and why. It paints a clear picture: the Earth is warming at an accelerating rate, driven almost entirely by human activity. “Our study shows greenhouse gas emissions are at an all-time high, mainly from the burning of fossil fuels,” says Dr. William Lamb, Senior Researcher at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Germany. “The good news is that solutions are already available. By investing in renewables and electrification, governments can cut emissions while building cleaner, more reliable and more secure energy systems.” World’s carbon budget will be exhausted in three years The carbon budget – the total amount of CO2 that can still be emitted while keeping warming less than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels – now stands at just 130 billion tonnes from the start of 2026. At current emissions levels, that will be exhausted in around three years. The 1.5-degree limit is the cornerstone of the 2015 Paris Agreement, an international treaty designed to prevent the most catastrophic impacts of the climate crisis. Global greenhouse gas emissions hit a record 56.8 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent in 2024, driven mainly by the burning of fossil fuels. Concentrations of the three major greenhouse gases – carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide – have all risen since 2019, with CO2 now at 425.6 parts per million. “It comes down to a simple principle: we are emitting more greenhouse gases than ever before, causing rising greenhouse gas levels which are trapping more and more heat in the atmosphere and pushing the world out of balance,” says Dr Matt Palmer, science fellow at the UK Met Office. The report also found that the Earth’s energy imbalance – the gap between the heat entering the planet and the heat escaping it – has more than doubled in recent decades and is now at a record high. This means the planet is storing heat faster than at any point in modern measurements. “The Earth’s energy imbalance is growing fast, driving changes in every component of the climate system, including ocean and continental warming, permafrost thawing, ice loss, and sea level rise,” says Dr Karina Von Schuckmann from French research institute Mercator Ocean International. Sea are rising and getting warmer Global sea levels reached a new record in 2025 – 23cm of rise since 1901 – and the rate is accelerating. The oceans are absorbing much of the excess heat, with average sea surface temperatures hitting their second highest level on record last year. A newly added indicator in this year’s report captures the scale of marine heatwaves: the number of days affected has more than tripled globally between 1991 and 2025. In 2025 alone, the world experienced 65 marine heatwave days, damaging ecosystems, threatening fish stocks and disrupting the ocean-atmosphere systems that regulate the Earth’s climate. On land, the picture is just as bleak. Average maximum land temperatures over the last decade were nearly half a degree higher than the decade before – a shift that is pushing extreme heat to new levels around the globe. “Nearly all of the warming over the last decade is driven by human activities,” says Dr Samantha Burgess of the Copernicus Climate Change Service. “The impacts on livelihoods and ecosystems are already being felt worldwide, and will accelerate as temperatures continue to increase.” The scientists behind the report are also sounding the alarm about a less visible risk: the global datasets used to track these changes are themselves under threat. Funding cuts – including the Trump administration’s decision to scrap the US State Department’s global air quality monitoring programme last year – are creating dangerous gaps in the evidence base that climate science and policy depend on. “Without this, future assessments will be much more difficult at a time when urgent climate action is needed,” warns Dr Chris Smith of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.