Mujtaba Rahman is the head of Eurasia Group’s Europe practice. He posts at @Mij_Europe.
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s premiership is entering its final phase.
The U.K. leader may be insisting he will lead his Labour Party into the next election, but events both inside and outside the camp suggest otherwise. The real question is no longer whether Starmer survives, but who succeeds him, how and when.
As widely reported, the pivotal moment could arrive via the Makerfield by-election on June 18, as a victory for Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham would provide Labour MPs with the credible alternative they’ve been seeking — a scenario that would make pressure for a change at the top overwhelming.
Starmer’s various attempts to reassert his authority after Labour’s disastrous local election results in May have failed to improve the mood, and nearly 50 MPs are already openly calling for him to establish a timetable for his departure.
For many Labour MPs, Starmer’s problem is not that he is simply unpopular with voters and appears unable to reverse the party’s deteriorating political fortunes. It is the sense that his government is drifting and that he had no real plan for power. This is why many in the parliamentary party have concluded that remaining loyal to Starmer carries greater electoral risk than replacing him.
The individual most likely to do that is Burnham — and it might not be that big a shake-up.
Burnham’s allies are quietly optimistic about his prospects in the Makerfield race. A split on the right is helping Labour, with the new far-right Restore Britain party taking votes away from Nigel Farage’s Reform UK. Meanwhile, the Greens are soft-pedaling their campaign, as Burnham has promised to introduce proportional representation in Labour’s next manifesto — a longstanding priority for the leftist party.
Less tribal than most Labour leaders, Burnham is a pluralist open to working with other parties. Viewing a “progressive alliance” between Labour, the Greens and the Liberal Democrats as the best way to deny Farage the keys to Downing Street, he hopes his commitment to including proportional representation in Labour’s next general election manifesto will bind these parties together.
If Burnham wins, Starmer would then likely set out a departure timetable. And while former Health Secretary Wes Streeting insists he will enter any leadership race, Burnham’s allies are privately pushing for a coronation, as Labour’s grassroots members — who choose the party leader — don’t want a divisive contest. Plus, Streeting may be keen on the top job, but he would probably back Burnham in return for a senior cabinet post.
A handover of power could take place in the immediate aftermath of a Burnham victory; however, a September handover — possibly at Labour’s annual conference in late September — looks more realistic. (For now, Burnham is focused on a very close fight with Reform UK, leaving little time to prepare for government.)
But what would Burnham do with power?
Despite his veiled criticisms of Starmer’s government, the Greater Manchester mayor has repeatedly signaled he would respect Chancellor Rachel Reeves’s fiscal rules for the remainder of this parliament. He has already retreated from proposals that might alarm financial markets, and he has shown little appetite for reopening debates over large-scale nationalization.
Indeed, Burnham’s calls for greater public control over sectors like water, transport and energy are not a return to the nationalization programs of the 1970s. Rather, they’re modeled on his approach to Manchester’s bus network: stronger public oversight combined with continued private-sector involvement.
Also, Burnham would almost certainly avoid increases in income tax that would violate Labour’s 2024 manifesto commitments. He may, however, seek revenue elsewhere through measures like council tax reform, inheritance tax changes or land-value taxation.
His most significant policy shift, though, could be to Britain’s relationship with the EU.
Unlike Starmer’s cautious incrementalism, Burnham appears more willing to accelerate the U.K.’s economic reintegration with the bloc. He is unlikely to reopen the emotionally charged question of membership, but he could lay the groundwork for Britain’s eventual participation in the Single Market or Customs Union — a move that would be welcomed by much of British business.
Truth is, Stamer won’t be safe even if Burnham fails in Makerfield either. In that case, former Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner or Energy Secretary Ed Miliband would likely emerge as leading candidates on the so-called soft left to replace him, and Streeting would position himself as the leading centrist contender. The result would be a divisive leadership contest Labour would prefer to avoid.
Politics is often slow until it suddenly starts moving fast. Westminster appears to be approaching one of those moments. If Burnham wins in Makerfield, his route to the top job will be clearer than ever.
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