Could this woman determine who will be Britain’s next prime minister?

Could this woman determine who will be Britain’s next prime minister? Rupert Lowe’s right-wing challenger could tip the balance in Makerfield – and Westminster - Bookmark - CommentsGo to comments With just over a week until they head to the polls, the people of Makerfield hold Britain’s political future in their hands. The by-election was triggered by a Labour MP seeking to give Andy Burnham an opportunity to return to Westminster and challenge Sir Keir Starmer, whose leadership remains under immense strain. But the mayor of Greater Manchester’s victory - and subsequent opportunity to challenge the prime minister- is far from guaranteed. The area is one of many post-industrial northern towns that turned its back on Labour in favour of Nigel Farage’s Reform UK in last month’s local elections, winning 24 of 25 seats up for grabs in Makerfield’s Wigan borough. But in what could be a major stroke of luck for Mr Burnham, a right-wing challenger could hamper Reform’s vote just enough to secure a Labour victory. Restore Britain’s candidate, local businesses owner Rebecca Shepherd, 53, could be the deciding factor in whether Burnham has a clear path to No 10 or not. The party appeared to fracture Reform’s vote in the first constituency poll, winning seven percentage points. This is over double the slim three point lead Burnham held over Reform candidate Robert Kenyon in the same poll. A second poll, by Survation, saw Restore’s vote grow by 1 per cent, while Reform’s decreased by the same amount. Meanwhile, Labour enjoyed a 10 point lead, perhaps boosted by Restore’s 8 points. A recent leaked poll, published by the i Paper, put Rupert Lowe’s party at 13 per cent of the vote, just 11 points behind Reform UK, who were also 11 points behind Labour. The UK’s leading pollster Professor Sir John Curtice said, if accurate, the polls suggest Restore could “make the difference between Reform winning or not winning”. “They are largely picking up the same kind of people as Reform. The national polls suggest they’re picking up the younger end of Reform support,” he told The Independent, adding Restore is more likely to be a “potential spoiler than a significant player”. He said: “Their 6 or 7 per cent of the vote could be larger than, or similar to, what might be the Labour lead over Reform.” If Restore splits Reform’s vote enough to sweep Burnham to victory, he is widely expected to challenge Sir Keir upon his return to Parliament in a contest he is the favourite to win, making him the next prime minister. However, if it does not and Reform’s Robert Kenyon wins, Sir Keir could remain prime minister, or face a challenge from other Labour MPs, including his former deputy Angela Rayner or the recently resigned Wes Streeting. Meanwhile, a Reform win could boost Nigel Farage’s own chances of reaching No 10 by painting his party as an inevitable successor to Labour. Either way, Shepherd’s vote certainly has the potential to ultimately determine Britain’s next prime minister. Farage has attempted to diminish the impact of Restore’s presence in the by-election, insisting the contest was a “two-horse race” between Labour and Reform, but it is already clear that the fledgling party is poaching Reform’s voters. Restore Britain was founded by former Reform MP Rupert Lowe after he was suspended from Reform UK last year, amid claims he had threatened then-party chairman Zia Yusuf. He denied the allegations, and the Crown Prosecution Service said no criminal charges would be brought against him in relation to alleged threats towards Mr Yusuf. The party - which until now has largely been based in Lowe’s constituency Great Yarmouth - is further to the right than Reform on issues such as immigration. The party has enjoyed support from tech billionaire Elon Musk, who has publicly backed Restore Britain a number of times on his X platform. Sir John said the limited nature of polls makes it difficult to identify exactly why Reform voters are defecting to Restore, but former deputy cabinet secretary Helen MacNamara pointed out voters may now see Lowe’s party as true anti-establishment. “I think the other problem is that Reform have left a space wide open for Restore by having so many former Conservative ministers as part of their party,” the co-host of the In the Room podcast said. “They've left the space for we're not like them, anti-establishment wide open, and that's the space that Rupert Lowe is operating in.” Sir John said: “It will be interesting to see how Nigel Farage deals with the same problem as Kemi Badenoch has been trying to deal with, which is somebody trying to stop people from wandering to somebody who is even more extreme on immigration and culture than you are. “But you can certainly see how Reform would be worrying about that potential threat.” Join our commenting forum Join thought-provoking conversations, follow other Independent readers and see their replies Comments