Commentary: PM Anwar faces leadership referendum in upcoming Johor, Negeri Sembilan state polls

Commentary: PM Anwar faces leadership referendum in upcoming Johor, Negeri Sembilan state polls The upcoming state assembly polls in Johor and Negeri Sembilan are fast shaping into Malaysia’s most consequential electoral contests, serving as unintended referendums of PM Anwar’s leadership with far-reaching national consequences, says CNA's Leslie Lopez. KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysian political waters are starting to percolate. The general election is not due until February 2028, but the upcoming electoral contests for the state assemblies of Johor on Jul 11 and Negeri Sembilan on Aug 1 could provide an early indication of the fate of Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s government. The polls in the two states are fast shaping into more than early unintended referendums on Anwar’s leadership and his Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition that leads the Unity Government. More importantly, they are also expected to offer a preview of a still-in-the-works political realignment among Malaysia’s three ethnic Malay political parties. Should this new realignment secure public traction, the ramifications will spread well beyond the two states, with serious consequences for Anwar and his embattled Unity Government. The state polls could determine whether Anwar serves out his full term as prime minister since taking office in November 2022, or he could be forced to call for an early general election outside his control. One thing is certain: Multi-racial Malaysia is entering a new political cycle that could seriously test the notion among foreign investors that the resource-rich nation, particularly in hydrocarbon deposits, is an oasis of stability at a time of global economic and political upheaval. UMNO’S DOUBLE GAME Malaysia’s current political grief stems from a double game being played by the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO). While remaining in Anwar’s Unity Government at the federal level, the party is brazenly undermining Malaysia’s first multi-coalition government by orchestrating potentially divisive state assembly elections in Johor and Negeri Sembilan. The party, whose president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi is also one of the two deputy prime ministers in the Cabinet, has also declared that it and its allies in the Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition would be contesting all 56 seats in the Johor state assembly, effectively treating PH alliance parties as political adversaries. UMNO and BN also plan a free-for-all in the Negeri Sembilan assembly, which has 36 state constituencies up for grabs. Anwar’s political woes deepened when the right-wing Parti Islam Se-Malaysia (PAS), the lynchpin political entity in the opposition Perikatan Nasional (PN) coalition, announced this week that it was terminating cooperation with Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu), which is headed by former Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin. The fracture in PN, which ordinarily would have been a boon for the Unity Government, has instead turned into something more dangerous for Anwar: a potential electoral pact between PAS, a breakaway Bersatu faction led by Muhyiddin’s former deputy Hamzah Zainuddin and UMNO. The new collaboration, representing a potentially powerful Malay-Muslim political bloc, is likely to be tested in the upcoming Johor and Negeri Sembilan state assembly polls. Should it hold, it would demonstrate that the opposition can unify without Muhyiddin and that UMNO – despite its humiliation of only emerging with 24 seats in the November 2022 general election – remains a necessary component for a Malay-majority government. AN AWKWARD MOMENT FOR ANWAR The coming electoral contests come at an awkward time for Anwar. There is growing public unhappiness with his leadership due to the convergence of economic pressures facing ordinary Malaysians, stalled institutional reforms and internal political pressures. Inflation and the rising cost of living are consistently cited as the number one problem facing Malaysians. The government’s energy subsidy bill, which currently averages around RM7 billion (US$1.72 billion) monthly, is straining public finances and stoking anxiety over potential subsidy cuts. There is also widespread public unease over the government’s expansion of the sales and services tax. The second major source of discontent is the widely held public perception that the Anwar administration has failed to deliver on institutional reforms. For example, Bersih, the country’s premier civil society dedicated to electoral reform and democratic institutional strengthening, has given the Anwar administration low marks for reform progress. INTERNAL STRESSES IN PAKATAN HARAPAN The potential consolidation of the Malay-Muslim parties come at a time when the ruling PH coalition is facing serious internal stresses. Anwar’s own Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR), a Malay-majority multi-ethnic political entity that is wracked by structural and ideological fractures, suffered a major blow in mid-May when two of its brightest second-echelon leaders, former Economy Minister Rafizi Ramli, and former Natural Resources Minister Nik Nazmi Nik Ahmad, left the party and resigned as elected Members of Parliament. The party, now reduced to 29 seats in Parliament, continues to struggle to expand its appeal beyond Anwar's personal base. PKR’s ally Parti Amanah Negara (Amanah), which offers itself as a moderate Islamic alternative to PAS, only has eight MPs and has largely failed to establish a distinct constituency among ordinary Malaysians. Only the ethnic Chinese-dominated Democratic Action Party (DAP) remains resilient within the PH coalition. With 40 seats in the lower house and deep historical loyalty among Chinese voters, it remains a force in urban and semi-urban constituencies concentrated in areas with sizeable non-Malay populations. NEW CRUCIBLE FOR A NATIONAL ELECTORAL MAP With a combined total of 34 parliamentary constituencies, Johor and Negeri Sembilan states account for just over 15 per cent of the total number of seats in the 222-member lower house. But the upcoming contests in the 56 state seats in Johor and another 36 seats in Negeri Sembilan are more than just state elections. They are fast shaping up into a crucible in which Malaysia's political future is being forged. Should UMNO, PAS and the breakaway Bersatu faction led by Hamzah forge an electoral pact in the upcoming state polls, UMNO and its allies in BN could inflict serious hurt for PKR and Amanah. PKR, widely considered as the nominal anchor of the PH coalition, holds one state seat in Johor and five seats in Negeri Sembilan, while Amanah holds one seat in each state. In the previous elections, the Malay-based parties in PH eked out electoral gains because of three cornered fights. Should the opponents of PH agree to field one mutually agreed-upon candidate, a PKR-Amanah wipeout in Johor and Negeri Sembilan can’t be ruled out. DAP, which has 10 state assembly seats each in Johor and 11 in Negeri Sembilan, is also not expected to have an easy run. But three-cornered fights in the urban and semi-urban seats are likely to help the party largely retain the bulk of its ground. The prospect of an asymmetric outcome - DAP holding its ground while PKR and Amanah flounder – would have major repercussions for the internal balance of the PH coalition. Apart from reinforcing DAP’s dominance in the coalition, it would also expose the hollowness of Anwar’s so-called “Reformasi Project”. This is anchored on the idea that a Malay-led multi-ethnic coalition could win significant nationwide support from the politically dominant Malays, who account for nearly 60 per cent of the population. Anwar won’t be on the ballot but his leadership will be the implicit question for every voter in the two states.