What if Trump actually seized Kharg Island?

Kharg Island is a small coral outcrop off the coast of Iran that handles around 90% of the country's crude oil exports, making it key to Tehran's economy. US President Donald Trump on Thursday vowed to seize control of Iran's Kharg Island, a small coral outcrop off the Iranian coast that is crucial to the country's crude exports. "At some point in the not too distant future, we will be taking Kharg Island, and other oil infrastructure points, and assume total control of their Oil and Gas Markets," Trump wrote on Truth Social. If Tehran loses control of Kharg, Iran’s oil exports would not come to a complete stop, but they would be seriously impacted, increasing pressure on Iran's economy. The island holds some of Iran's largest oil storage tanks, the endpoints of export pipelines, deep-water loading terminals, as well as military and air defence installations. US occupation of the island could also tie down Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps. The island sits around 25 kilometres off the Iranian coast and would present a tricky but feasible operation for the US military, which would need to take out the island’s air-defence systems, land its forces and set up cover. Holding it would be difficult because Kharg is close to the coast and Iran could easily carry out continuous attacks with ballistic missiles, drones, cruise missiles, attack boats, combat divers and special forces. A potential dilemma for Iran If Iran tried to drive out US forces with missile or drone strikes, it would risk damaging its own oil tanks, loading equipment, pipelines and port infrastructure. Tehran could instead seek to hit US supply lines, warships, tanker traffic and American bases in the region in an effort to put pressure on Washington. There is, however, an important counterargument. If Iran’s leadership were to conclude that the island was lost for good, or that the American presence threatened the survival of the regime, it could consider making the island inoperable. In an extreme scenario, Tehran could sacrifice all or part of Kharg if it believed this would inflict disproportionate losses on US forces or exert political pressure on the Trump administration. For Iran, Kharg Island is not merely a military facility but also a vital economic asset, and its future will be key to shaping the course of the war.