UFC at the White House preview: Expert picks, stor...

The UFC's most anticipated fight card of 2026 is here. After nearly a year of planning and talk, 14 fighters are set to take their Octagon walks on Sunday from the White House to a custom-built stage on the South Lawn, where President Donald Trump and more than 4,000 other UFC fans will take in the fights. The setting is unlike any other in professional sports history, but will the fights themselves live up to the atmosphere? If the weather (and the bugs!) cooperate, there is a chance fight history will be made in Washington. Two-time champion Alex Pereira is going for a third belt. Lightweight champion Ilia Topuria is fighting to keep his title -- and his undefeated record -- against one of the toughest outs in the game. And the experts are split on whether either outcome can happen. Before the lights go up on "the claw" on Sunday, here are the storylines, statistics and picks for the UFC Freedom 250 fights. Five storylines to watch 1. How will fighters weather the storm ... or whatever Mother Nature hits them with? Forecasts for Sunday evening in Washington have been all over the weather map, which surely cannot comfort Dana White. The UFC CEO credits his production team with control of every last detail of the company's events. For years, White maintained that he had no interest in staging a fight card at an outdoor venue because of the variables such a setting creates. But here he is, putting on fights on the South Lawn, and White is resolute that the show must go on. "If it f---ing snows, we're fighting," he said recently on an Adin Ross stream. Good news for White: Snow is not in the D.C. summertime forecast, but there could be rain (55% chance as of Thursday morning, according to Accuweather). And if there is lightning in the area, White has acknowledged that the fights would have to be paused. Even with no precipitation, heat is expected to surpass 90 humid degrees during the day and could linger into the evening and present sweaty challenges. And bugs, don't forget the bugs! MMA fights can end in peculiar ways, even in the most controlled settings. Usually, the fighters are responsible for chaotic finishes, but imagine an athlete is forced to retire because of heat exhaustion or a rogue bug flying in his eye or an injury-causing slip on rain-soaked canvas, especially with a championship on the line. No one wants an uncontrollable element to decide the outcome of a fight. 2. Will this be the night Topuria cements his place among the all-time greats? Topuria (17-0) is undefeated and already a two-division UFC champion, winning his second belt at a younger age than anyone but Conor McGregor. He sits at No. 2 in the ESPN pound-for-pound rankings. His three most recent victories were knockouts of Alexander Volkanovski, Max Holloway and Charles Oliveira -- all one-time undisputed champions and, as such, all more accomplished than Topuria's opponent on Sunday, two-time interim titleholder Justin Gaethje. And yet the main event on the lawn of the White House is Topuria's greatest opportunity to make a statement heard around the world. Topuria is the second-largest betting favorite on the card, at -426 per DraftKings Sportsbook. Gaethje, 37, could be in his final fight. That these two careers are on such different trajectories makes this clash no less must-see. Fans hold "The Highlight" in the highest esteem because he lives up to his nickname every time he steps into the cage. He is the main attraction of any fight card he's on, and at this historic event, he is the front-and-center American hero. If Topuria is up to that challenge, he will be the one who's being talked about at the end of the night. 3. Will we see anything resembling peak Gaethje? It's hard to imagine Gaethje slowing down. It's impossible to envision a fight of his that does not wildly entertain. Even with odds stacked against him in what might be his final act, no one is foolish enough to discount Gaethje. That is especially true as he steps onto this White House stage he has said he is proud to be on, with his family watching cageside. But what is a reasonable expectation of him in this weekend's title fight? As Gaethje has grown older, his game has aged well. He has evolved into a more strategic fighter, but violence still leads the dance. In recent years, he hasn't fought as often as he used to, but there have not been massive gaps between appearances. As a fighter in his late 30s, with 30-plus fights under his belt, Gaethje has not lost touch with what fans love about him: his ability to entertain. He might end up falling on Sunday night, but don't expect a falloff. 4. Will the co-main event separate the hype from the GOAT? Unconvinced by White's proclamation that, with a win, Pereira would be the greatest MMA fighter of all time? You're not alone, judging by the dismissive social media reaction, but there's no reason to get feisty. White is a promoter, and his job is to tout people who fight for his company (Pereira), not people who no longer fight for him (consensus GOAT Jon Jones). What's more, while few impartial observers might elevate Pereira to the top of the mountain based on this weekend's result, there's no denying the fight could give him a big boost in that direction. If Pereira adds an unprecedented third championship by styling on Gane the way Jones did in his two-minute submission of Gane in 2023, "Bones" could be at least inspired to consider returning to the cage to show the world that "Poatan" is not in his league. A quick or dominant Pereira finish in his first fight at heavyweight also could motivate recuperating UFC champion Tom Aspinall to get back in the game, if for no other reason than to put behind him last October's unsatisfying no-contest with Gane and the months of eye doctor appointments that followed. Those are the fights Pereira needs to win to state his GOAT case. Sunday is the starting gate, not the finish line. 5. Can O'Malley stand out from the crowd like he used to? It isn't just the bright, colorful cornrows that distinguish "Suga" Sean O'Malley. His boldest attribute is his standup. O'Malley rose through the ranks to the bantamweight championship by being quick with his fists, winning nine of his first 10 UFC fights before being stopped by Merab Dvalishvili -- twice. With Dvalishvili holding the belt, O'Malley was cropped out of the title picture. The championship strap is now in the possession of Petr Yan, whom O'Malley defeated in 2022. That makes Sunday's fight with red-hot Aiemann Zahabi (seven straight wins) a high-profile opportunity for O'Malley to steal back the spotlight. Expert picks Lightweight championship Topuria is so confident. It's still a fight, obviously, so Justin has a puncher's chance. Everybody has a puncher's chance in a fight. But with the technicality, the footwork, the hand speed of Ilia, it's going to be ugly for Justin. I don't think he gets past the first or second round. -- Dustin Poirier I hate to be on that bandwagon, but it's just, how can you pick against Ilia? I think Gaethje might last more than a round. Maybe that's one difference I have from some others -- I think he'll make it at least two-and-a-half rounds, but then I think he gets knocked out. I don't think he's going to go out there and get reckless. Between him and coach Trevor Wittman, he's not just going to get run in there and get knocked out. He'll move a bit, throw some kicks, try to wrestle a little bit. He can't just allow Ilia to walk him down. -- Din Thomas One thing Justin has is good low kicks, but all of his best ones he throws in close quarters -- and you don't want to fight Ilia in close quarters. Topuria's pocket presence and power is something we've never seen. Justin has to find a way to throw those kicks and move right after to avoid the counters. I believe Justin is going to win this fight. I doubted him against Paddy Pimblett, and there is just something about this fight. If he doesn't get knocked out, I think he finds a way to win. The only way he loses is by knockout. I don't see Ilia grappling him. Ilia is a phenomenal grappler. I think people who did their research expected him to be a powerhouse grappler in the UFC, but that won't be his game plan. He'll be looking to knock Justin out, and if Justin can avoid that death punch, I think he wins a smart decision. -- Michael Chiesa Interim heavyweight championship This is going to be the most exciting fight on the card. I just don't see Gane coming in with a grappling-heavy approach. I think Alex is good enough to keep the fight on the feet, so we're going to see a heavyweight kickboxing match. And for me, it's pretty simple. If anybody not named Israel Adesanya wants to get in a kickboxing match with Alex Pereira, he's going to get knocked out. Pereira is going to find a way to touch the chin of Gane. There is nothing that leads me to believe the same power that put down light heavyweights won't do the same against heavyweights. -- Chiesa I actually think Gane can give Alex some problems. He moves really well for a big guy. His kicking game should be problematic for Alex. The keys for Alex would be to get Gane to stand in the pocket and have some back-and-forth exchanges. Slow him down. Walk him down. Corner him. I just don't know if Gane is going to be willing to do that. He has length, he might move better than Alex, he's durable. The biggest way Alex could slow him down might be psychologically. Alex has to make the stakes feel really big. Make him feel like this is the biggest card ever and get him to freeze. -- Thomas Pereira is the man. He's huge, fast and his power is going to translate to heavyweight. Gane hasn't been that active, there hasn't been a whole lot of fight time for him recently. I think Pereira catches him. -- Poirier Numbers to know 15 finishes: Topuria has been extremely dominant, winning all nine of his appearances inside the Octagon. During this unbeaten run, Topuria has established himself as an all-action, well-rounded fighter who consistently disposes of his opponents. Only two of his 17 professional fights have gone to the judges' scorecards -- his UFC debut against Youssef Zalal in October 2020 and against Josh Emmett in February 2024. If the champ gets his hand raised, it will likely be due to another impressive finish. Five title fights: Most of the conversation surrounding the co-main event has been about Pereira, and deservedly so, as he has a chance to make UFC history. But don't forget that this will be Gane's fifth fight with either the undisputed or interim heavyweight belt on the line. He won the interim title over Derrick Lewis in 2021 and lost to Francis Ngannou (2022) and Jon Jones (2023) before having a championship bout against Tom Aspinall ruled a no-contest last year. 70% distance rate: Much like Gane, Zahabi enters this fight card as a distant B-side in his matchup against longtime fan favorite O'Malley. Although Zahabi has won eight of his 10 UFC appearances, including an impressive seven-fight winning streak, 70% of those victories have been by decision. That hasn't helped him stand out in the promotion's deepest division, men's bantamweight. A finish against O'Malley would represent a big step toward stardom for Zahabi. One special request: Of the 14 fighters on the card, one has the distinction of being specially requested by the president. Lewis was not included among the original fight announcements. When President Donald Trump asked his friend White why, White made a quick call. "About an hour ago, the president leans over to me and says, 'Why is Derrick Lewis not on the White House card?"' White said during the postfight news conference at UFC 327. "And I said, 'Hold on, Mr. President.' I stepped away and called Derrick Lewis and said, 'Derrick, the president just asked why you're not on the card. Do you want to fight on the White House card?' He said, 'Of course.'" 1,499 days: Since his UFC debut in 2021, former Bellator MMA lightweight champion Michael Chandler has faced former champion Charles Oliveira (twice), former interim lightweight champions Dustin Poirier, Gaethje and rising star Pimblett, among others. But that path has featured plenty of hurdles. Of Chandler's seven Octagon appearances, he has had his hand raised just twice, against Dan Hooker in his promotional debut and against Tony Ferguson in May 2022. When Chandler enters the cage on Sunday, it will have been 1,499 days since his last victory, and he isn't getting a pushover in rising talent Mauricio Ruffy. "I always want the toughest competition I possibly can fight," Chandler said in an interview with UFC reporter Megan Olivi. "[The UFC] said, 'What do you think about Ruffy,' and before he even finished saying it, I said, 'Of course.' I've never said no to an opponent since signing with this organization in 2020." 363 days: Kyle Daukaus's first run in the UFC didn't go as well as he likely hoped. After entering the promotion with an unbeaten professional record in 2020, Daukaus built a 2-4, 1 no-contest record over the next two years before the UFC cut him from the roster. He spent the next year competing in Cage Fury Fighting Championship, where he won and twice defended the middleweight title. After 363 days competing in CFFC, Daukaus was re-signed by the UFC. Since returning to the promotion last August, Daukaus has been on a two-fight winning streak, finishing both of his opponents inside the first round. 5 minutes, 13 seconds: The UFC was looking to start this fight card with fireworks, so they called Steve Garcia, a fighter with a knack for finishes. He has knocked out seven of his 10 UFC opponents, and each of those finishes has come in the first two rounds. Garcia's 5-minute, 13-second average fight time is the shortest of anybody on the UFC Freedom 250 card and the shortest among active featherweights. He takes on his biggest challenge yet in two-time title challenger Diego Lopes to open Sunday's fight card.