Can the San Antonio Spurs bounce back from blowing the biggest lead in NBA Finals history and keep their season alive by beating the New York Knicks in Game 5 Saturday? According to San Antonio phenom Victor Wembanyama: "Everybody thinks — everybody knows — we're going to do it."
Well, Mr. Wembanyama, the Spurs would become just the 16th team in NBA history to win a series after going down 3-1. New York is on the brink of winning its first NBA title in 53 years, thanks to a full team effort.
Game 4's hero was Knicks forward OG Anunoby, who had the moment of the game on both ends of the floor. First, Anunoby blocked Spurs PG De'Aaron Fox at the rim with 11 seconds remaining. Afterward, OG made a game-winning tip-in off a missed shot by Jalen Brunson in the final seconds.
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Even though NYK has a decisive 3-1 series lead and is a -500 favorite to win the title, they can't "play with their food." These teams are splitting the "four factors" in the finals, and New York is only outscoring San Antonio by two points per game.
Since this could be the last game of the NBA season, I'm ramping up the gambling (responsibly, of course). With that in mind, here are my three best bets for the Knicks-Spurs in Game 5 of the 2026 NBA Finals tipping off at 8:30 p.m. ET Saturday.
The Spurs have held a double-digit lead in every game in the 2026 NBA Finals. So, obviously, San Antonio could blow New York out Saturday, especially since this is a literal must-win for the Spurs.
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But, we all know they aren’t 2+ possessions better than the Knicks, who are white walkers and apparently can’t be killed. I.e., the "backdoor cover" is always open for NYK. I’m almost counting on San Antonio going up 10 points.
Will the Spurs live to fight another day? We’ll see. I bet New York to win the title (+170) and cover the 1.5 series spread (+270) in my 2026 NBA Finals preview. Meaning, I’ve always thought the Knicks were the better team.
Yet, since I’m already holding those two tickets, I’m content just taking the points with NYK and hoping it’s "Knicks in 5". That said, I have a much stronger opinion on the total.
If you bet the Over in Game 4, may God have mercy on your soul. There were 125 points scored in the first half, and the Under 216.5 cashed with the Knicks winning in an instant classic 107-106.
It’s almost impossible for the Under to cash, and it’s an epic beat for Over bettors. San Antonio only scored 30 points in the second half. This happens all the time, but the Spurs had a 29-point lead, took their foot off the gas, and before you know it, they choked.
Their response should be to play fast Saturday to wake them after their collapse in Game 4. My logic is that if you’re playing fast, you have less time to think and are just reacting. I mean, it’s a game that these guys have been dominating their whole lives. Go out there and play.
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Furthermore, San Antonio has a younger and more athletic team that should be getting out in transition. I’m assuming Spurs head coach Mitch Johnson will tell his team something, "Let’s go out there and punch them in the mouth".
Then, if San Antonio goes up big again, Johnson will tell his guys not to take their foot off the gas. Meanwhile, the Knicks are happy to play fast-paced because they are a better shooting team and should score more points with more possessions.
Plus, they are outscoring the Spurs by four fast-break points per game, and transition 3-pointers are the best shot in basketball besides a dunk, obviously. Granted, it might be weird to say San Antonio should speed the tempo up, given it’s getting worked in transition.
But, because New York’s offense is better in the half-court, the Spurs need to run. And I philosophically believe all basketball teams should be running off live rebounds and turnovers before their opponents can set up their defense.
Meanwhile, San Antonio is at home, and role players typically shoot better in their home gyms. Heck, even Wembanyama shoots better at home, and he is shooting a lot of jump shots in these finals.
Now, I kept italicizing "should" because you can’t coach your bets, and every game takes a life of its own. However, it just feels like Game 5’s total should be at least 219, and everything I wrote is why.
Speaking of "role players shooting better at home," Champagnie has scored 10 or more points in six of his 11 home games in these playoffs. His true shooting percentage, which accounts for 2-point, 3-point and free-throw shooting, went from 58.6% on the road to 63.5% at home during the regular season.
Champagnie's defense, hustle and outside shooting keep him on the floor, and San Antonio’s rotation only went seven deep Wednesday. Spurs backup big Luke Kornet is questionable for Saturday with an "illness", and forward and reigning NBA Sixth Man of the Year, Keldon Johnson, has been a no-show in the finals.
Finally, the Knicks are hiding their weakest defender, Brunson, on Champagnie. I'm not saying San Antonio will run offense through him, but Champagnie should get some open looks because New York's defense is focused on Wemby, Fox, forward Stephon Castle and backup PG Dylan Harper.
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[Image text:] SPU NEWYORK RS 8 SPURS