Ukraine is running out of Patriot interceptors, its power grid is heading into summer crippled and President Donald Trump is consumed by Iran. But for the first time in years, Kyiv is gaining ground.
The country’s drones are cutting Russian supply lines and stretching its military and economy thin. Its forces have benefited from significant technological developments; the frontline has largely stabilized; and Kyiv has, for the first time since 2023, retaken more territory than it has lost. This has all bought Ukraine something it hasn’t had in a while: time.
That could give allies a rare opening at the upcoming G7 world leaders summit to convince Trump he needs to pay attention to the conflict and press allies to fill gaps — from air defense to long-range strike weapons — before the next Russian offensive.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has sought to capitalize on this rosier picture by intensifying his diplomatic engagement with the U.S. and Europe, while publicly and privately appealing to Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss how to bring the war to a close. The pressing question now is how to increase Western support enough to get Russia to negotiate in good faith.
“There’s a recognition it’s not as hot as it was before,” said a senior White House official. “There’s little skirmishes. But, it’s not like it was two years ago, or a year ago.”
Trump last year lambasted Zelenskyy for not accepting a deal and accused him of overplaying his hand. But that was before Kyiv’s outlook improved. European diplomats said the G7, which starts Monday, should be a chance for Ukraine’s backers to clearly restate their support for Kyiv against Russia, including via military and financial means.
“Europeans today are taking on almost 100 percent of the aid for Ukraine, but it’s still important for our G7 partners, notably the United States, to continue to do their part — or at least to not weaken their support further,” said a diplomat from a large EU country, who like others, was granted anonymity to discuss confidential summit plans.
The EU has covered Ukraine’s financial needs in coming months through a €90 billion loan. But Kyiv is seeking at least €20 billion more to double down on its battlefield successes against Russia.
“Everyone sees that Russia is burning, and we want it to burn even more, but we need financing to do it,” said a senior Ukrainian defense official.
Global leaders, including Trump, will meet with Zelenskyy for a two-hour session in Évian-les-Bains. But whether Trump and Zelenskyy will speak one-on-one at the summit is still unclear. The White House official said no meeting is scheduled, while a Ukrainian official said something could still be arranged.
A major question is the future of peace talks between Ukraine and Russia. While the U.S. has stepped back amid the Iran crisis, Ukraine’s foreign minister said ahead of the G7 that Kyiv still sees Washington leading negotiations. The difference now is that Ukraine wants European leaders to participate as well — though the question of who might represent the Europeans is the subject of heated, and inconclusive, debate.
Both Kyiv and its European allies agree a joint approach to future peace talks should exclude granting territorial concessions to Moscow with no legal recognition of Russia in the Donbas disputed region.
Even with Kyiv’s gains, Russia has still been able to wreak havoc on Ukraine and its infrastructure. Zelenskyy has said that Ukraine uses 60 to 70 interceptor missiles per month. That’s more than Raytheon, the system’s American manufacturer, currently produces.
The Ukrainian leader is seeking U.S. authorization to manufacture Patriot interceptors domestically and has asked Germany to provide dozens of interceptors from its stockpiles in exchange for ones Kyiv produces later.
“Zelenskyy has been clear that he needs more missiles,” the White House official said.
The uncertainty around a peace deal with Iran only cements Washington’s distraction in the Middle East. Trump aides Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are the chief negotiators for both the Iran and Russia-Ukraine conflicts. The pair have continued to talk to Zelenskyy and his team, including this month, but the White House doesn’t expect any immediate progress.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio said last month that U.S. efforts to help broker a diplomatic solution “have stagnated.”
Europeans will likely use the G7 to sell the U.S. on the benefits of sealing a drone deal with Ukraine.
Kyiv floated the idea last summer, but the Trump administration balked. The president doesn’t want to be seen as giving Zelenskyy a win, said one European official who has had conversations inside the Trump administration.
But Kyiv has found other willing partners. The Ukrainians have signed a slew of industrial cooperation deals with the United Kingdom, Germany and Canada to produce drones at a scale that Ukrainian industry still struggles to achieve.
A group of British companies will deliver 120,000 drones to Ukraine this year under a series of deals signed over the past year. Canada entered into a similar drone agreement with Ukraine in May to build drones and ship them to the front. German defense giant Rheinmetall and multinational European missile makers have also partnered with Ukrainian companies on missile and armored vehicle programs this year.
Europe has also taken tentative steps toward seeking direct contact with the Russians, including a meeting in Moscow between the ambassadors of the U.K., Germany and France with a Russian representative.
But the EU is split on whether to seek a formal negotiating channel with Moscow. And it remains unclear whether Putin is willing to sit down with European leaders.
Ukraine has also pressed the U.S. and its allies to ratchet up economic pressure on Moscow, but has gotten mixed results — particularly from Washington. The EU adopted its 20th Russia sanctions package in April but held back a centerpiece maritime services ban on Russian oil tankers, hoping the U.S. will back the effort at the G7, two European officials said.
Washington has moved in the opposite direction. It has granted Russia sanctions relief and issued a series of 30-day oil waivers since March to stabilize markets roiled by the Iran war.
At the very least, keeping Trump interested in Ukraine’s fight would be a win for Kyiv and its backers. Macron is hoping to host Trump for a private dinner at Versailles to help shore up his engagement on Ukraine and other issues important to Europe. Trump, at least for now, does not plan to go.
Évian is just the first stop in a series of high-stakes diplomatic forums this summer. Poland and Ukraine are co-hosting a Ukraine recovery conference in Gdansk soon after the G7. Then comes a high-stakes NATO summit in Ankara, where Ukraine support and defense spending will figure prominently. And afterwards, Macron will convene a meeting of the so-called Coalition of the Willing, which are the countries that have pledged to provide troops and support when the war ends.
Paul McLeary and Jack Detsch contributed to this report.