LONDON — Keir Starmer will seek out his comfort zone as he arrives in the French Alps for his latest foray on the world stage — but allies are already exchanging nervous glances as they ask how much longer he’ll be in the job.
The British PM sets out for France in the wake of a devastating double resignation by his defense secretary, John Healey, and armed forces minister, Al Carns, that has sharpened the sense that Starmer’s days are numbered.
He was already facing an active threat to his position as leader of the Labour Party and as prime minister. He has lost the confidence of at least 100 of his own MPs, and Andy Burnham — the Greater Manchester mayor who is seeking to return to Westminster — has confirmed he will bid for the top job if he wins a Thursday by-election.
In the wake of Healey’s exit Starmer repeated his message that he wouldn’t go without a fight. But the former defense secretary’s parting letter — in which he accused the prime minister of being “unable” to adequately fund the armed forces — strikes at the PM’s argument that he represents a maturity and stability on the world stage that the Labour Party would risk losing with his removal.
The milieu of the international summit has long been Starmer’s refuge, a place where he is applauded by counterparts who have genuine regard for his work to support Ukraine, to keep the U.S. broadly onside, and to extend a hand of friendship to the EU.
Yet current and former diplomats from countries including the U.S. and half a dozen EU nations, all of whom were granted anonymity to speak candidly, said they saw Starmer’s stock was down as he faces potential exit from No. 10, and that they had little or no idea what to expect from Burnham, the man expected to be his successor.
A spokesperson for Starmer said: “In these volatile times, it’s more important than ever that we’re working with our partners to keep people safe and secure at home.”
Cause for concern
As he tries to rally against a backdrop of severe domestic pressure, Starmer is expected to highlight the U.K.’s leadership on Ukraine and on efforts to secure the Strait of Hormuz, which international observers generally see as areas where he can claim credit.
An official from a country on NATO’s eastern flank confirmed that Starmer had impressed with the solidarity he has shown for Kyiv, noting that Volodymyr Zelenskyy has “a good relationship with Keir Starmer” which would “take time” to rebuild under a new leader. The Ukrainian president thanked his counterpart Sunday after British forces intercepted a Russian shadow fleet tanker for the first time.
Two diplomats from close European nations said Starmer had gained genuine respect for “taking an international lead” to help build the so-called coalition of the willing for Ukraine, with one saying “he hasn’t been given enough credit” for his actions, especially at home.
This was echoed by Ben Judah, a former adviser to David Lammy as foreign secretary, who said people “don’t appreciate how much difference he has made” in “resetting our relationship with France, Germany and [the] European Union,” while acknowledging that reset talks with the EU had not yet lived up to their promise.
Meanwhile, a U.S. official predicted that the transatlantic relationship, already dented by Starmer’s refusal to back Trump over bombing Iran, would get even worse if Burnham were to enter No. 10.
Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper, who has said she was working “really closely” with Starmer on the most pressing international issues, during a video meeting with Olena Zelenska, the First Lady of Ukraine, at Chevening House in Sevenoaks on June 11. | Carl Court/Getty Images“Starmer is seen as a reasonable choice for now, given the further-left alternatives,” this person said. “Wherever that [relationship with Trump] stands at any given moment, it’s a lot deeper than what something with Burnham might be.”
Starmer’s own Cabinet ministers have in the past pointed to his record as a statesman when arguing he should stay in post, yet that line of defense appeared to be weakening ahead of the G7. Speaking to POLITICO from her country residence at Chevening, Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper said she was working “really closely” with Starmer on the most pressing international issues, but could not bring herself to say that he was the right person to lead the country at this time.
Starmer’s spare lung fails
While the U.K.’s allies may not follow every twist and turn of Labour Party machinations, their attention has been drawn afresh by Healey’s decision to step down. They are aware that ultimately a leader can’t separate his fortunes abroad from those at home, and want to know what’s next.
The same Eastern European envoy quoted above said: “We hope that he stays but we proceed on the basis that it [strong support for Ukraine] doesn’t all depend on him.”
A second Eastern European diplomat said: “Weak domestically is eventually weak abroad. All politicians treat foreign policy as a spare lung, but it rarely works.”
Another official from a G7 nation said they doubted there was much mileage left in the U.K.’s once-vaunted ability to talk to the White House since their breach over Iran, saying: “Starmer is burnt with Trump.”
This could deteriorate further given the spotlight on Starmer’s difficulties in meeting spending commitments on defense.
Pentagon policy chief Elbridge Colby posted in the wake of Healey’s resignation: “There is a great need for more British military strength in this critical time. We urge the U.K. to meet that need with urgency, scale and determination.” A senior U.K. government official confirmed that the issue of defense spending was consistently raised by international partners in bilateral meetings.
Burnham’s blank space
Allies are also anxious because they have no idea what policy Burnham might pursue toward the U.S. and on a whole range of foreign and defense questions, with the same G7 official describing it as a topic of “stress.”
Another of the Eastern European diplomats cited above said Burnham’s international posture is “a huge question mark,” while a Western European official said: “We just don’t really know what he will do and what he necessarily stands for.”
One campaign figure insisted they were wholly focused on the by-election, while an ally previously claimed Burnham would be “totally focused on the domestic as much as possible,” and would aim to go on fewer prime ministerial foreign trips than Starmer. A spokesperson for Burnham declined to comment.
The Greater Manchester mayor gave an interview Friday in which he vowed to cut welfare to pay for defense and give priority to British firms, but didn’t set out much beyond that.
National Security Adviser Jonathan Powell, who is seen as unlikely to stay on under a Burnham premiership beyond a handover period, leaving Downing Street ahead of an October 2025 meeting between Starmer and Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. | Leon Neal/Getty ImagesWhile Burnham is already building a team to advise him on domestic matters, with chatter focusing on who might become his chancellor, it remains unclear whether he is consulting anyone on national security and defense.
Speculation has been rife in Westminster that he could “sub-contract” foreign policy to a senior figure, as Rishi Sunak did when he appointed David Cameron to his Cabinet, with some even going so far as to suggest that Starmer could return as foreign secretary.
However, three allies of Starmer told POLITICO this was unlikely because of the “anger” Starmer feels over how Burnham has conducted himself. One of the U.K.’s other most powerful diplomats, National Security Adviser Jonathan Powell, is seen as unlikely to stay on under a Burnham premiership beyond a handover period, with two of the projects he has worked closely on — the Chagos Islands and Ukraine peace talks — remaining stalled.
Change through stability
Cooper has closer ties to Burnham, however, and an ally said that in recent meetings with G7 nations, her counterparts had expressed a desire to see her stay in post to provide continuity. Gordon Brown, currently working on defense finance, is also seen as aligned with the Greater Manchester mayor and open to playing a role in his government.
This hasn’t prevented some of the flock that Burnham needs to court from beginning to sound the alarm over his alleged vagueness on major global questions. One Labour MP with an interest in defense said his domestic focus was “wildly unrealistic when the main job of a PM these days is abroad whether they like it or not,” while another complained: “That will quickly prove neither right nor possible.”
Faced with the prospect of yet another seismic upheaval at Downing Street, foreign powers and Labour MPs alike are taking comfort in the idea that the logic of the U.K.’s position, bolstered by civil service machinery, will just keep everything ticking over.
“I think in the global situation we’re in, European powers are just bound in a way to work together at the moment,” said one diplomat from an EU country. “It’s just going to happen.”
Clea Caulcutt, Sam Blewett and Dan Bloom contributed reporting.