The EU has a window of opportunity. Can Ireland deliver?

Dublin takes on the six-month presidency just before the French election grinds EU decision-making to a halt.

By ZOYA SHEFTALOVICH
in Brussels

^{Illustration by Eoin Ryan for POLITICO}

Ireland takes over the rotating presidency of the Council of the EU on July 1 at a moment of rare political opportunity — and intense time pressure.

Dublin wants to use its six months chairing the EU’s policy agenda to push forward some of the bloc’s biggest unresolved questions, from enlargement to the next long-term EU budget. But with France voting in a presidential election in April 2027, Irish officials know the window for major political decisions will not stay open for long.

“We’re aware of the electoral cycle, we’re practicing politicians ourselves so we can see how things work,” Ireland’s Europe Minister Thomas Byrne told POLITICO.

As the French campaign gathers pace, Paris is likely to become more cautious about controversial EU decisions, wary of handing ammunition to Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella’s far-right National Rally, which leads the opinion polls. That leaves Dublin with a narrow period in which to broker agreements before French domestic politics begins to dominate the European agenda.

The urgency is heightened by a significant shift elsewhere in the bloc. The departure of veto-wielding former Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has removed one of the biggest obstacles to EU decision-making, creating new momentum on files that had been stalled for years.

“When you hear [Hungarian ministers] speak in the way they’re speaking now, you nearly fall off your chair, because it’s a complete reversal of where they were,” Byrne said. “There’s a complete U-turn in relation to the rule of law, there’s a complete U-turn in relation to the fundamental principles of the European Union … that does present a moment of opportunity for us.”

Expanding the European Union beyond its current 27 member countries is a top priority for Dublin.

“On enlargement we see a unique opportunity,” Byrne said. “We haven’t had an enlargement in the course of a number of Commission terms, actually.” Croatia, the newest EU member, joined the bloc on July 1, 2013, just as Ireland wrapped up its last turn in the presidency hot seat.

At the front of the queue is Montenegro, with a population of just over 600,000, which is widely regarded as the most advanced of the Western Balkan candidates.

“I am confident that EU enlargement will make historic merit-based steps forward under the Irish presidency and I have no doubt that Montenegro will remain at the forefront,” said Petar Markovic, Montenegro’s ambassador to the EU.

He noted the “determination and consensus not to miss a singular window of opportunity that history suddenly opened and could just as haphazardly close.”

The big one

The much larger and more populous Ukraine presents a more complex political challenge. Its accession would carry far greater economic and budgetary implications for the EU, making it a tougher sell for the 27 existing members, which would need to agree unanimously to allow a new country into the club. Plus, it is still fighting off the full-scale Russian invasion.

Vsevolod Chentsov during the signing ceremony in the margin of the EU-Ukraine Association Council in the Berlaymont the headquarters of the European Commission. | Martin Bertrand/Hans Lucas/AFP via Getty Images

Still, “there’s a moment now,” said Ukraine’s Ambassador to the EU Vsevolod Chentsov. “The Irish are very committed, we feel they will do whatever is necessary to put accession on the agenda.”

After the EU announced on June 15 that it would open the first negotiating cluster — one of the six thematic blocs into which dozens of policy areas are grouped for accession talks — Kyiv hopes Dublin will hit the accelerator.

“We want to open all the remaining five clusters in July. If we do not open them, ideally at the beginning of July, then we are stuck. And if we pause it will be very difficult to motivate our parliament to keep working,” Chentsov said, referring to the reform legislation that Ukraine’s parliament, the Rada, must continue adopting as part of the accession process.

“We need this reform agenda. We need to keep the pace moving,” Chentsov said.

Yet diplomats warn that time is not on Kyiv’s side.

One EU diplomat from a country that supports Ukraine’s EU membership, granted anonymity to speak freely, described the French election as a “significant threat” to the speed of accession negotiations.

“If you’re Edouard Philippe, you don’t take a big swing on Ukraine just before the election,” the diplomat said, referring to the former French prime minister who is seen as the best-placed conservative candidate to take on the far right in the presidential election. “It could play into Bardella’s hands.”

Balancing act

The same political constraints hang over another defining challenge of Ireland’s presidency: negotiations on the EU’s next long-term budget — known as the Multiannual Financial Framework — which is due to take effect in 2028.

European Council President António Costa wants to secure a political agreement on the EU budget before the end of 2026.

Some capitals, dubbed the “friends of cohesion” and made up largely of countries that get more out of the EU budget than they put in, argue that Brussels needs substantially more money to finance priorities including defense, competitiveness, enlargement and support for Ukraine. But the frugal countries which pick up the tab are fighting for less spending.

“We’ve had this crunch point,” Byrne said. “We’ve seen, very clearly, the different views around the table.”

Ireland is seeking to position itself as an honest broker. Byrne noted that he’d chosen not to attend a breakfast meeting of Europe ministers from the frugal countries before last month’s General Affairs Council in order to preserve Dublin’s neutrality before taking over the presidency.

Thomas Byrne during Foreign Affairs Council meeting of Minister responsible for Trade of the European Union in the European Council in Brussels. | Martin Bertrand/Hans Lucas/AFP via Getty Images

Ireland’s budget balancing act will only become harder the closer it gets to the French election. A senior diplomat from a non-EU country referred to November as the beginning of the “silly season” in the election campaign, after which President Emmanuel Macron will have no appetite for risk-taking on EU matters.

A push for a larger EU budget in the months before the election could become a potent campaign issue for the far right, allowing Le Pen or Bardella to portray Brussels as out of touch and wasteful.

Pressure from the National Rally could in turn force centrist politicians like Philippe to adopt tougher positions, making it harder for Paris to support an ambitious financial package.

But Costa and his team want governments to develop a sufficiently ambitious framework before leaders get directly involved in the talks, according to a second EU diplomat from a frugal EU country. If Ireland settles too early on a modest package, any later attempt to expand it by Costa at a leaders’ summit could appear as a dramatic political U-turn.

That leaves Ireland trying to strike a delicate balance: securing enough funding to satisfy Brussels’ ambitions while avoiding a political backlash in France.

“It’s important for the Irish to get it right,” the second diplomat said.

Sebastian Starcevic contributed to this report.