ROME — Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni spent years pushing Italy’s post-fascist right toward the political mainstream. Now a former army general is pulling it back.
The newly launched National Future party, led by firebrand ex-paratrooper General Roberto Vannacci, is rapidly gathering support and attracting defectors from the governing coalition.
This is causing a splitting political headache for Meloni, as she heads toward a general election next year looking unusually vulnerable.
The first effect of Vannacci’s rise is that he is crushing one of Meloni’s key coalition allies: the anti-immigration League party of Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini. A poll on Monday showed that National Future had already reached parity with the League.
Vannacci’s ascent is also increasingly forcing Meloni to fight on his terrain, on topics such as migration, national identity, Russia and NATO spending, shifting the coalition’s center of gravity further to the right.
Ultimately, Meloni has a difficult decision to make on whether to court Vannacci’s electorate before the 2027 election. If she does, the danger is that she will alienate moderate voters and her center-right allies in the Forza Italia party, who see Vannacci’s xenophobic extremism and anti-EU positions as a danger to Italy’s international credibility.
Vannacci made no bones about his demands for remigration and his hostility toward Brussels in a speech on Saturday.
“Italy must be for the Italians, and I am not ashamed to say so,” he said. “Either you are with us from National Future , guardians of nationalism and citizenship, or with [Ursula] von der Leyen, [Mario] Draghi, multinationals and globalism.”
Difficult to ignore
Meloni’s shift to the right was on full display last weekend when she entered a row over an Italian literary festival, denouncing its anti-fascist pledge as censorship. Opposition leaders seized on the intervention as evidence that the prime minister has increasingly been chasing voters drawn to Vannacci.
Giuseppe Conte, leader of the left-populist 5Star Movement, accused Meloni of becoming “obsessed with Vannacci, who thrives on her failures and betrayals.”
Giuseppe Conte, leader of the left-populist 5Star Movement, accused Giorgia Meloni of becoming “obsessed with Vannacci, who thrives on her failures and betrayals.” | Roberto Serra – Iguana Press/Getty ImagesBut whether Meloni is consciously courting Vannacci’s supporters or not, the former general is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore.
On issues ranging from anti-fascism to sanctions against Russia and defense spending, coalition figures now find themselves responding to arguments popularized by Vannacci.
A world turned upside down
Vannacci first burst onto the national scene with “The World Upside Down,” a book condemned by critics as racist, homophobic and misogynistic, but became a bestseller and transformed him into a political phenomenon.
National Future claims it has already signed up more than 100,000 members in three months, and is steadily attracting lawmakers from the governing coalition.
A poll on Monday by the SWG polling agency for the left-leaning LA 7 television station put support for National Future at 5.3 percent — neck and neck with Salvini’s League, raising the prospect that Meloni may eventually need Vannacci’s support to secure another parliamentary majority.
Pollster Lorenzo Pregliasco of Youtrend said support for the new party had been “surprisingly steady” since its launch in January, and if the current trajectory continues, it would overtake the League in the next few months.
“Vannacci is the fresh new thing,” appealing not only to the extreme right but to disaffected voters, and some from the populist-left 5Star Movement, he said.
Carlo Calenda of the centrist Action party told POLITICO: “It’s a cycle that repeats itself. Someone arrives who shouts louder than the others … we fall for it as we fell for 5Star, Salvini and Meloni.”
Vannacci formally launched his party last weekend at a congress hall near the Vatican, unveiling a platform that included remigration, a limit on the number of foreigners living in Italy, 14-year-olds in the workforce, salaries for stay-at-home mothers and a rollback of legal protections that he argues unfairly favor women.
Defectors say Vannacci offers something the governing coalition no longer does: ideological clarity. While Meloni’s government has been forced to compromise on issues ranging from migration to foreign policy, supporters describe the former general as an uncompromising voice on security, national identity and traditional values.
“We represent the rejects and the scum, and we are proud of it,” Vannacci told party activists.
Among those attending the launch was former Brothers of Italy lawmaker Emanuele Pozzolo, one of the first to defect to Vannacci’s camp.
Pozzolo told POLITICO he had become disillusioned with a government that failed to deliver on its promises of tackling security and Italy’s demographic decline while becoming increasingly “submissive” and sidelined on the international stage.
Vannacci’s political skills have been underestimated, said Pozzolo. “You can like Vannacci or not like Vannacci. But he communicates very clearly and leaves no one in any doubt about what he thinks.”
Former Brothers of Italy lawmaker Emanuele Pozzolo, pictured in Rome on March 4, 2026, was one of the first to defect to Vannacci’s camp. | Simona Granati – Corbis/Corbis via Getty ImagesHaving served in Afghanistan, Iraq, Bosnia and as an attaché in Moscow, Vannacci retains strong appeal among voters drawn to his military background and emphasis on patriotism and national identity.
Parliamentarian Laura Ravetto told POLITICO she defected from the League because “as a soldier” Vannacci has defended his country. “So, I believe that at this delicate moment for the country, when we need to rediscover the identity of the nation and preserve what are our traditions, he is the right person.”
Changing the debate
The broader concern for Meloni is that Vannacci is no longer merely attracting voters but shaking up national politics.
On migration, he is pushing the debate toward ever tougher positions. On defense, he is exploiting the right’s growing unease over the cost of rearmament.
And for Ravetto, a push by the League to reinstall party leader and Transport Minister Salvini at the high profile interior ministry is more evidence of a group under pressure.
Vannacci’s influence is growing increasingly visible in European policy as well.
The former general has emerged as one of the most outspoken opponents of Ukraine’s accession to the EU. In May, Salvini then hardened the League’s position, declaring the party “absolutely opposed” to Ukraine’s membership, forcing government politicians to clarify this was not Rome’s official position while stressing that the enlargement of the Western Balkans should take priority.
The issue is now likely to gain momentum after U.S. President Donald Trump renewed his focus on Ukraine at this week’s G7 summit, potentially making it one of the most sensitive discussions at upcoming European Council meetings. For Meloni, the debate risks further narrowing her room for maneuver between European partners and a growing nationalist wing at home.
Similar tensions are emerging over defense spending. Italy initially explored borrowing up to €15 billion through the EU’s SAFE defense loan scheme before discussions shifted to a smaller figure of around €7 billion. But as opposition to rearmament grows on the right and Vannacci attacks higher military spending, officials increasingly doubt whether Rome will use the facility at all.
Such a decision would represent a setback for Defense Minister Guido Crosetto, one of the government’s strongest advocates for higher military spending, as well as a blow to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who has made the initiative a centerpiece of her defense strategy.
Inside or outside the tent?
The challenge confronting Meloni is one increasingly familiar across Western conservatism: whether to keep an insurgent movement at arm’s length or bring it inside the tent.
Crucially, before the 2027 election, Meloni must decide if she wants Vannacci in her coalition.
Crucially, before the 2027 election, Meloni must decide if she wants Vannacci in her coalition. | Ludovic Marin/AFP via Getty ImagesOutside the coalition, he would continue to exert pressure on the right.
If Vannacci’s movement continues to rise, above about 8 percent, Meloni will be forced to absorb it in order to remain competitive, predicted Calenda.
Yet bringing Vannacci into the fold presents risks as well as opportunities.
Inside the coalition, his party could drain the remaining support from the League. What’s more, the former general has repeatedly courted controversy, drawing criticism for his comments about migrants, women and LGBTQ+ people, and his dog whistles to neofascists.
Those positions and his opposition to Western support for Ukraine could complicate Meloni’s efforts to maintain backing among moderate Forza Italia voters.
Tensions already spilled into the open last week, when Meloni, during a debate in parliament, accused Vannacci’s movement of helping the left by attacking the coalition and splitting the right-wing vote. For Pozzolo, the remark amounted to the prime minister “slamming the door” on National Future.
Vannacci, for his part, has shown little interest in making life easier for Meloni. On Saturday, he insisted he would not soften his positions in order to join the coalition.
“National Future is the compass for the center right, which has somehow gone off course,” he said.
Yet, with the right and left blocs neck and neck in opinion polls, a growing National Future could become indispensable to another conservative victory.
If Vannacci’s party continues to rise, Meloni may eventually have little choice but to deal with him.
Jacopo Barigazzi contributed to this report.