ASHTON-IN-MAKERFIELD, England — The data is clear: Andy Burnham’s path to No. 10 Downing Street runs through the most difficult political terrain he could have chosen.
Voters across the United Kingdom have fled Labour since the 2024 general election, instead embracing the populist right Reform UK Party and its anti-immigrant message. That’s turned many strongholds into politically dangerous waters for Labour — and Burnham has picked the constituency that’s the hardest of the lot for him to win.
The Greater Manchester mayor bet his political future on forcing a special parliamentary election to give himself a path back to Westminster, where he hopes to challenge Prime Minister Keir Starmer for the chance to lead the country. But out of all the seats in his region, Burnham has chosen to run in Makerfield, which has a largely white, Christian, working-class electorate, and is the hardest for Labour to hold on to, according to modeling by POLITICO’s polling partner, Public First.
The party’s collapse in the region has turned Makerfield decisively into Reform territory — as witnessed in Reform’s sweep of last month’s local elections in the area — and Public First’s model shows Labour faces a steep challenge to win in Makerfield again. No constituency in Greater Manchester has worse odds for Labour against Reform than Makerfield, and the seat is among the worst for Labour in the entire north of England.
But that risk also comes with upside: Surviving that test could give Burnham and his supporters the ability to claim they know how to win back the voters who have left Labour ahead of the next general election, not expected until 2029.