A Stochastic-Thermodynamic Constraint on the Seasonal Phase Locking of the El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation

arXiv:2606.19778v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We investigate the seasonal phase locking of the El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in a linear stochastic recharge oscillator (SRO), a damped oscillator with additive noise and a time-dependent growth rate. Phase locking is reflected in the seasonality of the variance of the sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA). In general, energy drives such a change, whereas entropy governs whether it occurs; phase locking is thus subject to both an energy- and an entropy-based constraint. We quantify this entropy-based constraint using a thermodynamic uncertainty relation (TUR), a fundamental inequality in stochastic thermodynamics. The TUR constrains the tendency of the SSTA variance by the partial entropy production rate, which is dominated by the ratio of forward and backward transition probabilities and quantifies the irreversibility of SSTA transitions. The growth rate governs this irreversibility: its extrema occur in boreal autumn and late winter, and the entropy production rate peaks at both times. These peaks relax the TUR constraint on the tendency of the SSTA variance, so that the variance itself can peak in boreal winter, consistent with observed ENSO phase locking. Conversely, when irreversibility is insufficient, ENSO cannot grow or decay. If this irreversibility were interpreted as dissipated energy, the constraint on ENSO growth and decay would require this dissipation to be exported from the equatorial Pacific. A more realistic model is needed to test this hypothesis and to further explore the physical connection between entropy and dissipated energy.