Months of war fundamentally change Iran-Gulf ties

Months of war fundamentally change Iran-Gulf ties June 19, 2026There is relief in the Gulf as the conflict between the US and Iran has entered a negotiation phase following nearly four months of fighting. Up until a ceasefire in April, Iran repeatedly fired on US military installations along with civilian and energy infrastructure in Gulf states. In the aftermath of the conflict, Gulf states are looking at Iran in a new light, while at the same time, confidence in the US security umbrella in the region is waning. From Tehran, there have been no signs of a fundamental change in course as tensions enter a new phase with the 60-day negotiation window with the United States having opened after the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) was signed Wednesday night. The Iranian leadership emphasizes that it has weathered the war politically and continues to possess effective leverage. Reuters news agency reports, citing diplomats, analysts and sources from the Gulf states, that while Iran has emerged from the war economically and militarily weakened, it remains politically intact. Iran has preserved its political structures and still has the ability to exert pressure on the Gulf states and global energy flows. The message from Tehran is thus clear: Iran continues to see itself as a regional power that the Gulf states will have to reckon with in the future. Middle East seeks a climb-down from confrontation The consequences for Gulf states and Iran over the past few months point to niether side having interest in another military escalation. At the same time, the war has significantly deepened mutual mistrust. However, for the Gulf states, Iran remains a power factor they must learn to live with. "Fundamentally, this conflict has severely damaged—if not destroyed—the process of mutual rapprochement," said Sebastian Sons, a Gulf state expert at the Bonn, Germany-based think tank Center for Applied Research in Partnership with the Orient (CARPO). Saudi Arabia's rapprochement with Tehran, in particular, has suffered a setback. "Frustration with Iran has grown significantly," Sons told DW. Conrad Schetter, a peace and conflict researcher at the Bonn International Center for Conflict Studies (BICC), told DW that despite distrust, relations between Gulf states and Tehran will not be severed. "These shared interests will ensure that relations do not completely break down, despite all the conflicts," Schetter said. He cited a shared interest in economic prosperity and stable political conditions as unifying factors. Iran flexes its regional power Schetter said Iranian attacks on Gulf states were part of Tehran's strategy to demonstrate "without us, the region will not function. The attacks have shown that oil and gas exports, as well as trade and tourism, remain vulnerable." Analyst Sons added that Gulf states were a "comparatively easy target" for Iran. According to the UK think tank Chatham House, the Iran war has proven that, in the event of a crisis, Iran could indeed block the Strait of Hormuz and thereby disrupt a significant portion of global trade. What was long considered a theoretical threat has now become a real and credible option. In the future, Tehran is likely to firmly integrate this option into its deterrence strategy. Iran is also likely to rely more heavily on direct leverage in the future. The war has exposed the vulnerability of the Gulf monarchies, which will remain a key factor in regional power politics, the think tank said. A pragmatic course from Gulf states? At the same time, there are many indications that the Gulf states will adopt a more pragmatic approach toward Iran. "The discussion oscillates between dialogue and deterrence," said Sons. Saudi Arabia has not severed its diplomatic ties with Tehran despite the attacks, and Oman and Qatar remain in close contact with the Iranian leadership. The Gulf states are therefore forced to pursue a dual strategy involving deterrence where it appears necessary and dialogue where it is possible. Relations with the US and Israel have also changed. "These relationships are extremely contradictory today," added Sons. While the US remains an important security partner, the war has shown just how limited US capabilities are when it comes to protecting the Gulf states from the consequences of an escalation. Analyst Schetter added that the Gulf states "had to realize that the US could not protect them effectively," said Sons. He expects an increased military buildup, investments in air defense, and efforts to reduce economic dependence on the Strait of Hormuz. An emboldened Iran? Politically, Iran has benefited from the war, said Schetter. "Despite the military strikes, the country is emerging from this crisis politically stronger." He added that the region must realign itself, as new alliances are possible, and that Tehran will likely act with greater confidence. There are many indications that relations between Iran and the Gulf states will in the future be characterized by neither reconciliation nor open confrontation. A sober coexistence is more likely to entail mistrust than before, along with more deterrence. But there will also be more dialogue and more efforts toward understanding. Both sides have learned just how high the costs of an escalation are, and that could become the most important foundation for their future relations. This article has been translated from German