Trump’s Iran deal, corruption trial and elections: Will Netanyahu survive his perfect storm?

Trump’s Iran deal, corruption trial and elections: Will Netanyahu survive his perfect storm? The Israeli prime minister promised a historic victory over Iran, now many say he has been defeated - Bookmark - CommentsGo to comments It has been a momentous week for Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Not only has a preliminary peace deal been agreed between the US and Iran, but the cross-examination in his trial has ended after over a year of questioning, drawing one of the most politically consequential trials in Israeli history into the final stretch. With Netanyahu’s corruption trial in the spotlight, along with criticism of the peace deal from Israeli politicians, and anger from a large majority of the population who say the US-Israeli war on Iran has not left them any safer, his chances in the upcoming elections look shaky. Will Bibi – who has clung to power for a total of 18 years – survive? Iran deal criticism After nearly four months of fighting, the US-Israeli war on Iran has seemingly paused with an initial peace deal signed between the US and Iran. But it appears to have had little input from Israel. Israeli politicians and media have been quick to criticise the 14-point plan, which includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a $300bn (£224bn) plan for Iran's reconstruction, and the US terminating sanctions on Iran. Iran’s nuclear programme, which was stated as the main reason for the US-Israeli strikes on the country in the first place, still needs to be negotiated during the extendable 60-day period. Netanyahu has tried to claim the outcome as a success and said that he would continue fighting to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons “with an agreement, without an agreement”. Tehran has long maintained it isn't trying to build nuclear weapons, saying its nuclear program is only for civilian purposes. But others were not convinced, with some saying that Netanyahu, who promised a historic victory over Iran, has come out of the war defeated. Netanyahu’s three aims at the start of the war were removing Iran's ability to develop a nuclear weapon, destroying its ballistic missile capability, and securing regime change. His opponents say he has failed at all of them. Former prime minister and Netanyahu rival Ehud Barak said in an interview with Israel's public broadcaster on Monday: “Israel is paying the price of Netanyahu's hubris and blindness, and the price of the manipulations that he tried to pull on Trump. "Iran emerged stronger; Israel emerged weaker. That is Netanyahu's strategic responsibility. He failed." Gadi Eisenkot, a centrist former military chief who is one of the favourites to oust the prime minister in the elections, condemned “the dismal outcome of a failed government”, highlighting the “vast gulf” between Netanyahu’s “empty promises of total victory” and the agreement between the US and Iran. On Tuesday, the Israeli newspaper Haaretz wrote that the Iran crisis is the second worst fiasco in Netanyahu's long history, following the Hamas massacre in Israel in October 2023. The deal also shows how relations between Netanyahu and Trump, once his staunchest ally, have become increasingly strained in recent weeks. In a phone call earlier this month with the Israeli prime minister, the president reportedly called him "fucking crazy" because of Israel’s continuing military action in Lebanon, which was threatening the peace deal, with Iran stipulating that a ceasefire must include Lebanon. Israel has repeatedly said it will continue its occupation of Lebanon, refusing to withdraw troops from the south of the country and continuing its airstrikes across Lebanon. The clashes escalated by the end of the week, with several IDF soldiers killed. This demonstrates the diverging aims for both leaders in the war that they jointly started on 28 February, with Trump wanting to put an end to the fighting, amid mounting pressure over surging energy prices, and Netanyahu wanting to continue. There is also disappointment among the general population in Israel. Despite polling by the Hebrew University of Jerusalem in April pointing to a war-weariness among Israelis, it also suggested two thirds opposed the truce between Washington and Tehran. Corruption trial On Tuesday, the cross-examination for Netanyahu’s long-running corruption trial ended after more than a year, amid repeated delays by the prime minister. Netanyahu has three criminal cases against him, all of which began in 2020 when he became the first sitting prime minister of Israel to stand trial. This one, known as Case 2000, is for fraud and breach of trust over allegations he planned an arrangement with Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper publisher Arnon Mozes, under which Netanyahu would receive favourable media coverage from the publication and, in return, advance legislation to weaken Yediot’s rival newspaper, the free daily Israel Hayom in 2014. The planned agreement with Mozes was never implemented. The prime minister has claimed his associates have likened the prosecution to the former East Germany’s “Stasi” and accused them of conducting a political trial like that in a “police state”. His testimony is not over – he returned to the Tel Aviv District Court on Wednesday for questioning by his co-defendants’ attorneys, before his own defence attorneys conduct a short re-examination. On Wednesday, Netanyahu called one of the prosecution’s central claims in Case 2000 “absolutely absurd”. If the coming hearings are not cancelled or shortened, his testimony is expected to finish by the end of the month or within the next two to three weeks. After that there will be closing arguments. It is expected that the trial will continue for a considerable period before a final verdict is delivered. The cross-examination ended after 94 days of testimony by the prime minister, including 59 hearings of prosecution questioning, which began last June. Netanyahu has denied all charges, maintaining that he is the victim of a politically motivated prosecution. He is also seeking a pardon from the president Isaac Herzog. Upcoming elections All of this points to the Israeli prime minister’s plunging popularity at a crucial time ahead of the elections, which are due to be held by October this year. Following Sunday’s announcement of the peace deal, support for Netanyahu’s Likud party dropped to 23 seats, according to a poll conducted by Israeli public broadcaster KAN News on Tuesday. This is one of the lowest levels of support for Likud in nearly a year. According to the poll, 55 per cent of respondents said they oppose the deal between the US and Iran, compared with 18 per cent who supported it and 27 per cent who say they didn't know. 70 per cent of respondents said they were still afraid Iran remains a threat even with the new peace agreement. Yashar Party leader Gadi Eisenkot is continuing to rise in the polls, and now has 21 seats. Meanwhile, Naftali Bennett’s Together party has 17 seats. However, it’s not all bad news for the prime minister. On the question of suitability for the prime ministership, the poll showed Netanyahu is still the favourite with 41 per cent compared to 33 per cent for Eisenkot, while 26 per cent say neither is suitable for the position. As the elections approach, it remains to be seen whether this perfect storm will topple Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, or if he can continue to cling on to power. Join our commenting forum Join thought-provoking conversations, follow other Independent readers and see their replies Comments