What next for Keir Starmer and Labour after Andy Burnham's Makerfield by-election victory

What next for Keir Starmer and Labour after Andy Burnham's Makerfield by-election victory One of Andy Burnham's key lieutenants has called on Keir Starmer to reflect on the result and consider his position to avoid an 'unpleasant' leadership contest. Here The Mirror looks at what could happen next Andy Burnham will return to the Commons next week - almost a decade after quitting as an MP. The ex-Greater Manchester Mayor will take the oath as Makerfield’s newest MP on Monday after he stormed to victory against Nigel Farage’s Reform at a high-stakes by-election. In a victory rally in the North West constituency on Friday, Mr Burnham, who has made clear he will run in any Labour leadership battle, said: “We’ve been on a path for 40 years that simply hasn’t worked for people and places in this part of the world, and this now is the change moment. We have an opportunity to turn the tide, to make the country feel like it’s working again, to make people see that politics can make a positive difference, to make people feel hope again.” One of his key lieutenants - the ex-Transport Secretary Louise Haigh - has called on Keir Starmer to reflect on the result and consider his position to avoid an "unpleasant" leadership contest. Here The Mirror looks at what could happen next. Andy Burnham 'coronation' Andy Burnham’s top allies want Keir Starmer to reflect on his position over the weekend and then set out an orderly transition of power. This would likely involve the Prime Minister announcing his resignation to the country - and outlining a timetable for his exit from Downing Street. This scenario could be made more likely if the Cabinet, which has so far remained publicly loyal to Mr Starmer, tell him the game is up in the coming days. But a ‘coronation’ for Mr Burnham would also require no other challengers throwing their hat into the ring for a shot at the top job. Wes Streeting, the ex-Health Secretary, has insisted he would stand and has called for a “battle of ideas” within the party over its future direction. If he reaches a deal with Mr Burnham - and no other ambitious Labour MP makes a punt - there could be a world in which the ‘King of the North’ enters No10 without a contest. Keir Starmer attempts to fight on The Prime Minister appeared defiant in the hours after Mr Burnham’s victory. He has repeatedly made clear he will not walk away from Downing Street and insisted he has a five-year mandate from the 2024 election to deliver on. In the coming days he could continue to dig in and ignore calls to resign. He is expected to talk with Mr Burnham over the weekend - but he could refuse demands from the Greater Manchester Mayor’s allies to outline his departure. If the Prime Minister attempts to fight on, it is extremely likely a leadership challenge will then be triggered by Mr Starmer’s rivals. In the hours after Friday's results, Mr Starmer insisted he would stand in any Labour leadership challenge triggered by his rivals. “If there is a contest, then yes, I will stand. I have said repeatedly, I am not going to walk away from that,” Mr Starmer said. This is where it gets extremely messy. Labour leadership contest triggered The summer could be dominated by a bruising civil war in Labour for the leadership. In order for a contest to be triggered, there must be a vacancy, or one of the Prime Minister’s rivals must secure the nominations of 20% of the Parliamentary Labour Party - or 81 MPs - to launch a challenge. If the Prime Minister refuses to step aside, it could be just days before Mr Streeting or Mr Burnham attempt to start the firing gun on a contest. As the incumbent, Mr Starmer would automatically be on the ballot paper. But a contest could drag on over the summer and result in a bloodbath with very public rows over the future direction of the party - reminding voters of the Tory psychodrama. It’s why Burnham’s team are so keen to avoid this scenario. How would a Labour leadership race work? In the event of a challenge, Labour’s rule book is clear that those wishing to be nominated must be supported by 20% of MPs. The timing of the contest would then be decided by Labour’s governing body, the National Executive Committee (NEC). It would likely drag on over the summer with hustings for party members and unions. If a battle is triggered in the coming weeks, the result could be announced ahead of Labour’s annual conference held in Liverpool at the end of September. A contender is declared the winner if they get more than 50% of first preferences, and this usually happens through a process of elimination during rounds of voting. But Harriet Harman, Labour’s ex-deputy leader, warned against a “protracted” contest. She suggested the process for choosing the next leader should be made quicker by excluding party members and instead just having MPs decide the leader. This option would almost certainly require approval from Labour’s governing body.