LONDON — Andy Burnham is the only Labour leadership contender with a plausible chance of slowing the march of Nigel Farage’s Reform UK and — in the best case — saving his party from a catastrophic rout at the next election, according to polling from POLITICO’s polling partners Public First.
Burnham’s victory in Thursday’s Makerfield by-election, in which he crushed his Reform rival, is already seen by his backers as clear proof that the outgoing mayor of Greater Manchester can be Labour’s savior. But the Public First research lays bare the scale of the challenge facing Burnham, or anyone else who leads the U.K.’s governing party.
Even in the most optimistic scenario — with Burnham in charge and tactical voting factored in — a Burnham-led Labour Party would still fall more than 80 seats short of a majority in parliament, according to Public First. That would leave Labour relying on support from other parties to form a viable government.
Nevertheless, the poll conducted earlier this month suggests that as things stand, Labour’s best chance is to replace its beleaguered Prime Minister Keir Starmer with Burnham — and then hope its fortunes improve before the next general election, expected in 2029.
“The current state of play is both a story of Andy Burnham genuinely showing some popularity among the groups that matter, but also Keir Starmer having such low approval that most alternatives look popular in comparison,” said Seb Wride, head of polling at Public First.
The question of who can stop Farage’s rapid progress is the biggest and most urgent factor in the minds of Labour MPs.
Since winning a landslide majority in 2024, Labour has hemorrhaged support while Reform — which is only 5 years old — has stormed to the top of opinion polls and notched up hundreds of impressive local government election wins.
Labour collapses under Starmer
If there were any doubt about the extent of Labour’s collapse, the poll dispels it. Labour’s prospects with Starmer in charge are nothing short of dire.
Even factoring in tactical voting which would reduce Reform’s lead, Labour would secure just 127 seats (down from 411 at the 2024 election) while Farage’s party is on course for 316 MPs — by far the largest party and close to a majority in the House of Commons.
Replacing Starmer with Burnham would help, according to the poll, but it would not be a miracle cure for all Labour’s woes.
Switching to Burnham is worth an extra 4.4 points in the national vote share for Labour and 61 more seats. That would take Labour from 127 to 188 MPs and cut Reform UK’s tally from 316 down to 256. Farage would remain in charge of the largest party in parliament, but his path to Downing Street — via any sort of power-sharing agreement — would be narrower.
Nigel Farage will likely remain in charge of the largest party in parliament. | Ryan Jenkinson/Getty Images“Andy Burnham’s approval ratings remain relatively untested,” said Wride. “The question is whether he can maintain his popularity when he needs to quell, rather than join, the wave of anti-political sentiment gripping the U.K. Starmer was unable to do this, and the cost to his own popularity in just two years has been seismic.”
Burnham’s best case scenario
But the analysis also modeled a more “aggressive” interpretation, in which every respondent who said Burnham would make them “much more likely” to vote Labour is included in the tally of voters who do switch to Labour, alongside half of those who said they were “somewhat” more likely. In that best case scenario under Burnham’s leadership, Labour would narrowly overtake Reform on national vote share, with 26.0 percent versus 25.9 percent and become the largest party in parliament with 243 seats, still 83 short of a majority.
The geographical breakdown is particularly bleak for Starmer, especially when the pollsters asked voters to choose who would make the better prime minister, in a series of head-to-head questions.
The only region where voters prefer Starmer over Burnham is in London, a finding likely to reinforce the caricature of the prime minister as a creature of the metropolitan elites who is out of touch with the rest of the country. Burnham wins everywhere else, in a head-to-head with Starmer, peaking in his native North West on 72.7 percent support and Scotland on 70.8 percent.
In a head-to-head against Farage, Starmer only wins in Scotland, London, the North East and the North West, losing every other region — most heavily in the West Midlands and Yorkshire.
Burnham beats Farage in a head-to-head in every region and nation in Britain, by a 2-point majority in the West Midlands and by 40 points in the North West.
But in a sign that Reform UK’s support base has solidified, he struggles to win over the vast majority of Reform voters, who resolutely say they would prefer Farage as prime minister.
Leadership rivals
Burnham clearly outperforms Starmer in two key voter groups — wavering Labour voters and those who backed the party in 2024 but have since left.
Burnham’s support slightly dips among the voters who say they are certain to vote Labour (more of whom have a positive view of Starmer) but a majority of this group still likes him.
Burnham is unique among the major leadership candidates who have been touted as potential replacements for Starmer, who include Wes Streeting, the former health secretary, Energy Secretary Ed Miliband, and former deputy leader Angela Rayner. None of these other potential rivals can match Burnham’s profile: All three are all unpopular with both waverers and the voters Labour has lost.
Among wavering Labour voters, Starmer’s favorability rating is -22; Rayner’s -2; Miliband’s -6, and Streeting’s -11. Burnham, by contrast, has a positive score of +14.
Among the voters Labour has lost since 2024, all these leadership rivals have negative scores, including Burnham, though his is the least bad rating at -7. Streeting scores -35; Miliband is on -43; Rayner scores -46; and Starmer is the lowest of all on -75.
“The logic that there are candidates that appeal to Labour’s right, and candidates that appeal to Labour’s left, is not borne out by our polling,” said Wride. “Andy Burnham, currently, shows the strongest appeal to both.”
NOTE: The poll surveyed 2,008 UK adults from June 7 to 9, and has an overall margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points. Smaller subgroups have higher margins of error. The MRP (multilevel regression with poststratification) analysis involves taking national poll results to model attitudes at a constituency level through the demographics of each parliamentary seat — including factors such as age, gender, and education. The poll analysis focused on the 632 seats in Great Britain, excluding Northern Irish constituencies, where different parties compete for votes.