Why Trump and the GOP should be very worried for November based on primary voter turnout

Why Trump and the GOP should be very worried for November based on primary voter turnout Democrats have been unusually motivated to cast their ballots in their party’s primaries and special elections this year, new analysis has found – an ill omen for Republican candidates standing this fall - Bookmark - CommentsGo to comments President Donald Trump and the Republican Party have been handed a fresh warning ahead of November’s midterms, as new analysis reveals Democratic voter turnout is up across the board, even in red districts. Analysts for The Washington Post examining 990 races across 25 states from the last three election cycles have found that liberal voters are showing signs of being unusually motivated to cast their ballots compared to their conservative counterparts, raising the prospect of a blue wave hitting in November. Turnout was up in 92 percent of the 121 Democratic House primaries held this year when compared with the last set of midterm elections in 2022 when Republicans flipped the House of Representatives – a feat the opposition hopes to emulate this time around. By contrast, turnout increased in just 57 percent of the 124 Republican races that have been staged over the same period. Democratic turnout also proved to be up in 40 of those races that were held in districts considered “solid Republican” and in another five “likely Republican” areas, with the Post pointing to a 70 percent increase in ballots cast in the party’s primary race in Georgia’s 10th congressional district as an ominous sign for the GOP. The analysts further found that Democratic voters have already cast 12.6 million ballots in their party’s primaries and special elections this year, compared to just 8.6 million in Republican races, suggesting a far greater degree of voter apathy, disengagement or even disillusionment on the right than on the left. In all, the median number of Democratic ballots cast this year currently stands at 72,000, compared to just 64,000 for Republicans, which is significant because the parties were essentially tied at roughly 52,000 in 2022 and on 43,000 in 2018. The research also suggested that the gerrymandering push Trump has encouraged – which has seen red states like Texas move to redraw their electoral maps to try to gain an advantage – may not be working as they hoped. California, for one, responded in kind to redraw its map in hopes it would cancel out any potential Republican gains in Texas. The issue seems to have only animated left-leaning voters, causing turnout to spike in their primaries in those areas too. While the experts typically caution against reading too much into primary and special election trends, political science professor Michael McDonald of the University of Florida told the Post: “Something would really fundamentally have to change in a way that would favor the Republicans to change the dynamics that we’re seeing right now.” The analysis comes with Trump continuing to score wretched approval ratings as voters consistently express their concern about inflation and the cost of living and dismay at the war in Iran, despite the president finally signing a memorandum of understanding with Tehran last week. A new CBS News poll released Sunday found that 78 percent of Americans want the conflict to end without the further exchange of hostilities and that 69 percent believe it should never have been fought in the first place and had not been worth the expense. Join our commenting forum Join thought-provoking conversations, follow other Independent readers and see their replies Comments