Progressive Brad Lander’s surging bid for Congress splinters Democrats' labor union alliance

Conventional wisdom would suggest that Dan Goldman cruises to re-nomination in Tuesday's Democratic primary for New York's 10th congressional district. Scandal-free, two-term incumbent representatives who maintain a community presence, stay out of the national media spotlight and vote nearly entirely in line with their party rarely see bruising challenges from among their own ranks. And yet, Goldman finds himself in the midst of what has turned into an ugly, contentious battle for his political life. Former New York City Comptroller Brad Lander, who finished a distant third in the Democratic primary for city mayor last year — after a cross-endorsement with Mayor Zohran Mamdani that consolidated the progressive vote — hopes to capitalize on the anti-establishment sentiment sweeping through Democratic primaries nationwide. With endorsements from progressive figures like Mamdani and Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., and organizations like the New York Working Families Party, Lander has sought to position himself distinctly to Goldman's left. Indeed, Lander's candidacy serves as one of several crucial tests for Mamdani's political influence to come this Tuesday, as well as a high-profile benchmark for how much division over Israel influences election outcomes among Democrats. Lander boasted the Mamdani endorsement on the very first day of his candidacy in December, before the new mayor had even been sworn in. "[Brad] has been a trusted ally and partner of mine, and I'm proud to support him," Mamdani stated. "I know he'll keep delivering for those who need government to show up for them the most." In the 12th-most leftward-leaning congressional district in the country, one that backed Mamdani by nearly 25 percentage points in November's mayoral general election, this message seems to be striking a chord. There are a limited number of polls covering the race, and they are split, but a recent Emerson College poll showed Lander holding a staggering 34-point lead over Goldman. Prediction markets believe the race has already been decided in Lander's favor, with his odds on Kalshi nearing 100%. As it became clear the race was going to be a tight one, Goldman — a Levi Strauss heir and one of the wealthier members of Congress — pledged to match up to $1 million in campaign donations. To claw back lost ground, Goldman also has attempted to seize on an issue that has long been at the heart of American progressivism — a strong alliance with organized labor. Around 20% of workers in New York City are union-affiliated, doubling the nationwide rate. For political contests across the city, this fact makes unions key electoral allies, with multiple candidates often jostling to prove they have the most demonstrated appreciation for the concerns and priorities of labor. New York real estate tax law is a focal point for labor Throughout the past month, one of these labor concerns has become a key point of contention in the race — Lander's noted opposition to Section 485-x of the New York State Real Property Tax Law. Section 485-x, which replaced New York state's long-standing Section 421-a statute in April 2024, provides tax incentives for up to 40 years for developers seeking to erect affordable housing. It also establishes strict wage floors and mandatory annual wage increases for construction workers building this housing. Construction work on 485-x-eligible sites with at least 100 units must offer a minimum wage of $40 an hour to all respective workers. Construction work on buildings with over 150 units must offer a minimum wage of either $63 an hour or $72.45 an hour, depending on the construction zone, or a relative percentage of the zone's greatest prevailing wage. Additionally, the wages themselves are subject to 2.5% annual increases. However, for sites with fewer than 100 units, none of the aforementioned requirements apply under 485-x, making construction of housing developments of 99 units or less enticing for developers. In a forum with New York Law School last month, Lander stated, "I think that the governor gave in to the building trades, and, as a result, no new housing is being produced under that program." "[With] the cockamamie approach they put in [485-x], with different zones and a made-up wage level, they created a whole new bureaucracy in order for the governor to satisfy the building trades, and now no new housing is being built," he added. Goldman wasted no time trying to make the most of his opening. "My opponent says he's the true progressive in this race, which is interesting, because he clearly has a problem with our city's labor unions," the congressman noted in a late May Facebook post. "Last week in a forum, he blamed the building trades for … our housing crisis in New York City," he wrote. "That doesn't seem very much like pro-labor to me; that doesn't seem very progressive." The Lander campaign insists this loophole has resulted in a lack of affordable housing and a devaluation of construction work standards. In a recent statement to Spectrum News 1, a Lander spokesperson said, "Brad has criticized the 485x program because it's just not working to build affordable housing or to protect workers and everyone knows it. It's strange for elected officials or labor union officials to be defending a program in which 99% of the developments have taken advantage of a loophole that requires zero affordable housing or good jobs." Building trades unions representing the workers carrying out 485-x construction projects have not taken kindly to this perspective on the program. Kevin Elkins, the NYC District Council of Carpenters' director of political action, referred to the former comptroller as "Scab Lander" in a May X post, a harsh line of attack that equates Lander's commentary on 485-x to crossing a strike picket line. Later that same month, NYCDCC members protested outside of Lander's Brooklyn office, chanting "Who's the rat? Lander!" The Lander campaign did not respond to CNBC's requests for comment. AFL-CIO and UAW split Goldman has leaned into NYCDCC support, rallying with the Carpenters, frequently touting their endorsements, and attacking his opponent as inconsistent on labor issues. "New York's working families and organized labor have been my North Star throughout my time in office, and I'm deeply honored that the overwhelming majority of unions representing the hard-working men and women who keep New York City running are supporting me in this race," Goldman said in a statement shared by his campaign with CNBC. "I will always fight for organized labor — the heart and soul of our city." Goldman's attempt to present himself as the sole champion of labor in the race is complicated by the fact that labor's verdict on his candidacy is more splintered than is common for a candidate in his position. Rep. Adriano Espaillat, D-N.Y., who finds himself in a similarly precarious electoral position amidst a challenge from his left in a district about a dozen miles north of Goldman's, has seen organized labor line up near-unanimously behind his candidacy. This is despite the fact that his opponent, Darializa Avila Chevalier, is a current union member herself. In the midst of past progressive insurgencies, such as Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's upset victory in the 2018 NY-14 Democratic primary and Jamaal Bowman's 2020 win in NY-16, NYC unions were largely united in support of the incumbent representatives vying to hold onto their seats. Twenty New York City-based labor unions have endorsed Goldman's re-election bid. "[Dan] fought to create thousands of family-sustaining construction jobs in Brooklyn and put workers first by co-sponsoring a bill to raise taxes on corporations that pay their executives more than 50 times what they pay their workers," Mario Cilento, president of the New York State AFL-CIO, said in a statement of support earlier in the race. "We need Dan Goldman to make sure that the voices of working people are always heard, that unionized workers have a voice in Congress and in our government" said Janella Hinds, vice president for academic high schools at the United Federation of Teachers, amidst Goldman-endorsing unions at a June campaign rally. But a number of high-profile unions, including the UAW, the New York State Nurses Association and the Communications Workers of America, have come out in support of Lander. Enthusiastically, at that. "There really is no legislator who has been a greater friend to CWA than Brad Lander," a CWA spokesperson told CNBC. "He's devoted his entire career to public service, and in every elected office he's held, he's used his position to advocate for working people and has really walked the walk in terms of prioritizing working families and the middle class." The CWA, in explaining its endorsement of Lander, cited the need for representatives to push for pro-labor legislation, such as the Protecting the Right to Organize Act, as a key consideration in their endorsement process. Lander, they believe, is the best option to push past the gridlock and deliver favorable legislation. This sentiment echoes national frustration among labor leaders in seeing major labor reforms stall out through previous democratic administrations. As a result of increased partisan gridlock in Washington, the focus of reform efforts has largely shifted from the federal level to state and municipal scales. "As NYC Comptroller, he worked furiously to enforce our city's worker protection laws and helped win justice and overdue wages for thousands of wronged workers, including in industries 32BJ organizes in," 32BJSEIU President Manny Pastriech said, citing a close working relationship between the union and Lander as reason for gravitating towards his candidacy. "In the City Council, he passed new labor standards like the Fair Workweek Law to help bring stability to working peoples' lives, legislation that was a 32BJ top-priority," he added. For unions, Goldman vs. Lander presents a rare, intriguing tradeoff — do you preserve institutional power by backing a labor-friendly incumbent or go all-in for an upstart who you believe to be an effective legislator? The pundits and prediction markets may yet be proven wrong. But one way or another, this New York City congressional race has the potential to emerge as a key answer to this question for the Democratic Party on Tuesday night.