Colombia: The 'Tiger's' victory signals a rightward shift

Colombia: The 'Tiger's' victory signals a rightward shift June 23, 2026Colombia has elected a new president, and the result has the potential to transform the country for the long term. According to preliminary results, far-right lawyer Abelardo de la Espriella has won the presidential runoff by a narrow margin with 49.66% of the vote, edging out the left-wing ruling party candidate Ivan Cepeda, who received 48.7%. The margin of about 250,000 votes is the narrowest in the history of Colombian presidential elections. De la Espriella, a 47-year-old lawyer, entrepreneur and political newcomer, will succeed Gustavo Petro, the country's first left-wing president. For Colombia, this will likely mean a significant shift to the right and a departure from key initiatives of the previous administration, particularly in the areas of peace, security, energy and social policy. At the same time, de la Espriella is taking over a country that is politically deeply divided. No social consensus The actual takeaway from this election lies less in the result than in the narrow margin between the candidates: Nearly half of the voters supported Petro's current course, while the other half favored a fundamental change in direction. "Colombia has voted, and it could hardly have been closer," Kristin Wesemann, head of the German Konrad Adenauer Foundation's office in Bogota, told DW. "Politically, the country is split almost evenly," she said, "and the real challenge begins now in governing a deeply divided country and meeting the high expectations for greater security, economic stability and a government capable of taking action." Sabine Kurtenbach, interim president of the German Institute for Global and Area Studies (GIGA), offers a similar assessment of the election results. "Colombia remains completely divided," she told DW. What the country needs now, according to Kurtenbach, is "a president who tries to build bridges and who does not further fuel this polarization." Viviana Garcia Pinzon of the Arnold Bergstraesser Institute also told DW that the country is shaped by "two very different social models." The result shows "very clearly how divided the country is." Who is Abelardo de la Espriella? De la Espriella is by no means a traditional politician. He first became known as a criminal defense attorney representing high-profile clients, including paramilitary leaders and alleged drug traffickers. Later, he made a name for himself as an entrepreneur, television personality and commentator. His public persona is provocative and media-savvy. During the election campaign, he presented himself as an anti-establishment candidate and a national-conservative reformer. His supporters call him "El Tigre" — the Tiger. Politically, de la Espriella is aligned with the policies ofDonald Trump, El Salvador's President Nayib Bukele and Argentinian President Javier Milei. He was openly supported by Trump and has already received congratulations from the US Republican party. De la Espriella's election victory is based primarily on his promise to tackle the country's security crisis with a heavy hand. After years of escalating violence by guerrilla groups, drug cartels and other armed actors, this message struck a chord with many voters. The end of 'Paz Total?' By far the biggest shift in policy will be in security and peace policy. While Petro, with his "Total Peace" (Paz Total) strategy, focused on negotiations with guerrilla groups and criminal organizations, de la Espriella has announced the end of that approach. Instead of dialogue, he aims for military pressure, including airstrikes against armed groups, the resumption of aerial spraying against coca cultivation, the construction of mega-prisons and closer security cooperation with the US. Political observer Garcia Pinzon sees this as a fundamental paradigm shift. De la Espriella's concept, she says, is based on "a militaristic, heavy-handed policy" and is heavily modeled on the approach taken by El Salvador's Nayib Bukele. Elizabeth Dickinson, deputy director for Latin America at the International Crisis Group, warns against further exacerbating social divisions. "Whoever governs must win the trust of the other half," she said. "This is not the time for revenge or extreme politics, but for a path toward reconciliation." She also pointed out that the regions most affected by these problems voted overwhelmingly for the opposing candidate, Ivan Cepeda. This, she said, is a signal against an exclusively military strategy. Numerous new policies ahead The new administration is also signaling a break with the current economic policies. De la Espriella wants to significantly downsize the government, strengthen the private sector and promote investment. Among his most controversial proposals are a reduction of the government workforce by up to 40%, the promotion of fracking and increased use of fossil fuels. The energy transition pushed forward by Petro is thus likely to be reversed, at least in part. "Back to fossil fuels" is how Kurtenbach sums up the new president's energy policy course. He wants to "wind down" the energy transition. At the same time, she warns against taking his campaign promises for granted. Like Petro before him, de la Espriella does not have a majority in parliament. Political scientist Yann Basset of the Universidad del Rosario in the capital sees precisely this as the greatest challenge of the coming months. "None of the candidates has a majority in parliament," he told DW. The new president must first build a stable coalition and reunite the country after an extremely polarized election campaign. First protests However, election night already showed how difficult this might be. In Bogota and Cali, thousands of supporters of the defeated left-wing camp took to the streets. Some demonstrations escalated into clashes with the police. The AFP news agency reported barricades, burning tires and chants against the new president. In his victory speech, de la Espriella spoke of the beginning of a "new era" for Colombia. Whether this will actually mark a political fresh start depends on whether he succeeds in gaining support beyond his own camp. The experts interviewed by DW are remarkably unanimous on one point: The new president's greatest challenge will not be the fight against the guerrillas, but rather dealing with a country that is politically divided almost exactly in two. This article was originally published in German.