Poll: UK voters wanted Starmer gone, but not an immediate Burnham coronation

Results from The POLITICO Poll suggest that while U.K. voters were eager for new leadership, they were less interested in a shortcut for selecting the country’s new leader.

By ERIN DOHERTY

^{Illustration by Anna Wiederkehr/POLITICO (source images via Getty)}

Andy Burnham is the clear front-runner to become the country’s next leader after Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced his resignation Monday — a remarkable fall from power just two years after he rode a wave of voter demand for change to a decisive victory. But The POLITICO Poll finds that many U.K. adults didn’t want Burnham to be anointed leader, even though many were on board with him ultimately becoming prime minister.

Just 1 in 5 U.K. adults said Burnham should be immediately made Labour leader — and thus prime minister — if he won last week’s Makerfield by-election for a seat in Parliament, which he did.

Instead, a 54 percent majority of adults said there should be a leadership contest, even if it means going many months without knowing who will serve as prime minister. That view is fairly consistent across party lines, with 57 percent of Labour voters supporting the idea of a leadership contest instead of Burnham being elevated immediately.

The poll was conducted by London-based Public First shortly before the Makerfield by-election. Its results suggest that while U.K. voters were eager for new leadership — souring on Starmer’s handling of key issues like the economy and immigration — they were less keen on taking a shortcut to installing a new prime minister and not holding a leadership contest.

That comes even as Burnham was clearly favored over Starmer and rivals like Nigel Farage of the right-wing Reform U.K. and Zack Polanski of the progressive Green Party in head-to-head matchups. When asked who would make a better prime minister, 61 percent said Burnham, while just 39 percent said Starmer.

Nominations open July 9 for Labour leadership — and if he’s the only contender, Burnham could become prime minister by July 17.

Still, the results underscore the political challenges facing Burnham, with Reform U.K. opponents already attacking him as lacking a democratic mandate as he coasts to No. 10.

Burnham could secure that mandate by calling a general election — forcing a vote for all 650 seats in the House of Commons — and, if Labour wins control of parliament, cementing his premiership through the traditional process.

But a general election is unlikely to take place until 2029, and administering one now could result in Labour losing dozens of seats, even if the party still wins control. Recent research from Public First reveals that, even in the most optimistic scenario — with Burnham in charge and tactical voting factored in — a Burnham-led Labour Party would still fall more than 80 seats short of a majority in parliament. That would leave Labour relying on support from other parties to form a viable government.

The poll, conducted earlier this month, suggested that as things stand, Labour’s best chance is to replace Starmer with Burnham — and then hope its fortunes improve before the next general election, expected in 2029.

Both paths come with significant political risk for Burnham.

“If Burnham is accused of having no mandate for the next three years, it will be hard to make changes and maintain his popularity,” said Seb Wride, head of polling at Public First. “The longer he is introducing policy without calling an election, the more he can be accused of running scared from the British public.”

It’s clear from The POLITICO Poll that U.K. voters are torn over the current process through which Burnham is ascending to the country’s top political office.

Last week, Burnham won the by-election in Makerfield, England, returning him to Westminster and thus allowing him to run in a party leadership contest. With Starmer stepping down and the Labour Party still in power thanks to its victories in 2024, whoever wins that contest will rise to prime minister.

Former Health Secretary Wes Streeting, who would have been Burnham’s chief rival, announced he would not participate in the contest, instead endorsing Burnham. That effectively clears the path for the now-former Greater Manchester mayor to become prime minister, though it remains to be seen whether any other Labour MPs contest the coronation.

Asked in The POLITICO Poll about the Makerfield by-election being the process for picking a prime minister, U.K. adults were split: 41 percent said that process should not be how the next prime minister is decided — even if it means Starmer staying on — while 38 percent agreed with the statement that “this is a price worth paying for Keir Starmer to no longer be Prime Minister.”

Brits were also split on the fairness of the process, with 41 percent agreeing that “it is not fair that the decision of who becomes Prime Minister is so heavily up to the results of one constituency” and an equal 41 percent saying “this is just how politics works, alternative ways of changing Prime Minister are no more or less fair.”

The survey suggests that even as U.K. adults are eager to move on from Starmer — The POLITICO Poll in June found 64 percent of U.K. adults say they don’t trust Starmer and, in a separate question, 62 percent say he is not someone who keeps his promises — many remain uncomfortable with an uncontested power transfer.

Respondents expressed an array of reasons for wanting Burnham to go through a full leadership election within the Labour Party. The most popular reasons, selected from a list, were that it is “the fairer process” (35 percent), “allows a proper debate” about the direction of the party (31 percent) and allows other candidates to run (30 percent).

About 1 in 4 U.K. adults said an advantage of a leadership election is that Labour members get a say in the choice (28 percent) and that “it shows what Andy Burnham stands for” (25 percent).

As for the advantages of Burnham being made leader immediately — instead of through a full, contested leadership election — U.K. adults’ top reasons were that “it avoids a long, distracting leadership contest” (27 percent) and allows the government to “get on with doing its job” (25 percent).

Labour voters agreed with those reasons, though they also said top advantages to coronation are avoiding Labour publicly arguing among itself (30 percent) and that it “makes Labour look decisive” (30 percent).

Burnham, for his part, has said that it’s too early to determine whether he will call a general election. “You’re jumping several hurdles ahead there,” he told a BBC journalist in a recent interview.

“Burnham needs to weigh two versions of the future. In one he, like his predecessors, is currently at his most popular, and should call an election now to bank it,” Wride said. “In the other, calling an election when Reform is in the lead is a decision to lose a parliamentary majority which he could instead use to improve Labour’s electoral chances for 2029.”

Tim Ross contributed reporting.