OFFSIDE: Too many goals at World Cup 2026? Wait for the knockout rounds…

Ted Lasso was a rare silver lining during the dark days of COVID. As the world went into lockdown, an American football coach managing a soccer team had the enviable job of not just coaching a team in a sport that he did not know, but also uplifting the world’s spirits in its gloomiest days. And against all odds, Ted Lasso managed that and finally made Americans fall in love with a sport that was roundly associated with suburban mums and minivans. The received wisdom till then was that soccer was not high-scoring and fast-moving enough like baseball, basketball, hockey and American football, and therefore would not appeal to the American mind. Perhaps that is one of the reasons this World Cup, with North America as co-host, has been one of the most free-scoring tournaments in recent memory. Football lovers have tried to proffer various reasons for this. Some have blamed hydration breaks. Others point to the ball that is ostensibly harder to catch and has a mind of its own mid-air. Some blame the 48-team World Cup that has led to lopsided contests because we have never seen a nation being thrashed 7-1. Sunday League purists claim stringent refereeing is preventing defenders from kicking the bollocks out of attackers. But the numbers at least aren’t made up. After 54 matches, this edition has 161 goals. That’s 2.98 per game. Qatar 2022 finished with 172 goals in 64 matches at 2.69 per game. Russia 2018 managed 2.64. South Africa 2010 was 2.27 per game. Is it just the group-stage shenanigans or is there something more? Because group stages lie. They often flatter and exaggerate like life insurance agents. Golden Boot Race The race for the Golden Boot also looks equally ridiculous. Messi already has five goals. In many World Cups, that count would get you the gong. Vinicius Jr, Kylian Mbappé and Erling Haaland are stranded on four each, accidentally sorted by hunger. Lionel Messi leads with five. Vinicius Jr, Kylian Mbappé and Erling Haaland are on four. Deniz Undav, Johan Manzambi, Matheus Cunha, Ismael Saibari and Jonathan David are on three. Cristiano Ronaldo and Harry Kane, and a host of others, are lurking on two. Having a Ball The ball too has become part of the story and the Adidas Trionda has been unfairly compared to the Jabulani from 2010 that was the most hated sphere since the meteor wiped out the dinosaurs. Former England goalkeeper Joe Hart has raised suspicions about the ball, pointing out that even elite players are being hoodwinked into moving awkwardly because of it. The Trionda has a four-panel construction and deep seams that can give the ball a mind of its own and make it harder for keepers. Defence, where art thou? Yet it’s not always just the ball. Defending, fans have said, has become a lost art in the game. Too much refereeing has got rid of the brawlers, the hard tacklers, the men who put their heads where angels feared to tread. Opta’s defensive-error numbers show that 25 mistakes have led directly to goals, compared to 37 in the entire 2018 and 2022 World Cups combined. Some of it is down to technique, and some of it is down to bad touches, loose clearances and goalkeepers panicking when Erling Haaland bears down on them. Of course, we have the fairy tales of keepers from tiny nations like Cape Verde or Curacao, or the way Carlos Queiroz’s Ghana blanked out England’s attack. Own goals tell a similar story: Reuters reported seven own goals in the first 10 days, with the tournament threatening the record of 12 set in 2018. Add in five substitutions, tired backlines, stricter VAR-era defending and a wider quality gap in a 48-team World Cup, and the scoring spike makes sense. Wait for the Knockout Stages? But this points to a different sort of problem. As we move towards the business end, tournaments become stingier. Brazil 2014, for example, had 2.83 per game in the group stages and 2.19 in the knockouts. Germany 2016 saw 2.44 in the group stages and 1.88 in the knockouts. 2002 had 2.71 per game, with the knockouts dropping to 1.94. Of course, there are exceptions. Qatar 2022 and Russia 2018 both had high goal counts. The real defensive squeeze usually comes once the tournament reaches the quarter-finals and beyond. That is when teams stop chasing goal difference, stop playing open final group games, and start treating every mistake like a career-ending clerical error. Perhaps that’s why even today Germany’s 7-1 demolition of Brazil lives in the memory. Time will tell if the goal-scoring fiesta continues into the knockout stages, where the defences will be more equipped, forwards and attackers will become cagier, and we will discover if the group stage was just a beautiful anomaly. Third-placed showdown And now comes the tournament’s most undignified waiting room. With only eight of the 12 third-placed teams going through, four points should be close to a boarding pass, which makes Bosnia and Herzegovina almost safe. The three-point pack — Sweden, Croatia, South Korea, Algeria, Paraguay and Scotland — is where the real blood pressure lives, because goal difference now matters as much as goals. Cape Verde and Belgium, both on two, are still breathing but need help. DR Congo, Ecuador and Senegal are in the danger zone, where one more result elsewhere can turn hope into luggage. That is the hidden price of all those goals. Every 90th-minute consolation, every own goal, every keeper’s flap now sits on the table like evidence in court. The knockout race has already begun, only some teams are watching it from hotel rooms. The top eight third-placed teams qualify, with points first, then goal difference, goals scored, fair play and FIFA ranking used as tiebreakers. Meme Watch And the winner: