Sudan: Warnings mount over the risk of new mass atrocities

Sudan: Fears of atrocities as RSF surrounds key city June 25, 2026The next major frontline in Sudan's war is most likely the strategically important city of el-Obeid in North Kordofan. This week, the UN Security Council, several European countries and the United States flagged "the imminent risk of mass atrocities" as increasing numbers of Rapid Support Forces (RSF) troops are being deployed around the city. The assumption is largely that the RSF is preparing a ground offensive to try to retake the city, which has been under the control of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) since February 2025. The war in Sudan has been ongoing since a rift between the two rival generals — Abdel Fattah al-Burhan of the Sudanese Armed Forces and Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo of the Rapid Support Forces — escalated in April 2023. Since then, fighting has divided the country into army-held territories in the north and center, including Sudan's capital, Khartoum, and RSF-controlled areas in Sudan's western Darfur region and parts of the south. Sudan, rich in oil and gold and with its vast agricultural lands, has also turned into the world's largest humanitarian and displacement crisis over the course of the war. According to the U.N., more than 14 million people have been displaced within Sudan and neighboring countries. The estimated death toll ranges between 40,000 and 250,000 people as reliable figures remain difficult to obtain due to ongoing fighting. What makes el-Obeid a target? The city of el-Obeid, with a population of about 500,000 people is at the crossroads between central Sudan, Khartoum and the western Darfur region. It is therefore a key gateway for troop movements and military or humanitarian supplies. It is also home to a large SAF military base and a military airfield. "El-Obeid has been an important logistical hub for supply lines throughout its entire history," Hager Ali, a researcher at the German think tank GIGA Institute for Global and Area Studies, told DW. "If the RSF managed to retake el-Obeid, they would not only profit from its urban infrastructure and lucrative gum arabic trade but they could also use the city as a strategic forward operating base for launching drones," she said. Over the course of the war, drones have become a key weapon for both factions. According to the UN human rights agency, more than 1,000 civilians were killed in drone strikes between January and May 2026. However, with the beginning of the rainy season in July, the trajectory of combat drones becomes less predictable, Ali said. "If the RSF wants to advance towards other cities within Sudan, the most sensible course of action is to find a forward operating base that is much closer to their intended targets, just to combat the difficulties that you get in operating drones in the rainy season," Ali told DW. Repeating warnings Meanwhile, a spokesman for UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned in a statement earlier in June that "we must not allow the horrors of el-Fasher to be repeated in el-Obeid." The Darfur city of el-Fasher has become synonymous with mass atrocities after RSF troops besieged the city for 18 months before fighters killed about 6,000 people over three days last October in what the UN and human rights observers said bore the "hallmarks of genocide." "We have every reason to fear that the RSF will continue their mass atrocities if they are allowed to take el-Obeid," Kenneth Roth, former executive director of Human Rights Watch, told DW. "The RSF have shown utter disregard for civilian life," he said. "Indeed, deliberately killing large numbers of civilians seems to be their primary aim," Roth added. Amgad Fareid Eltayeb, political and foreign affairs advisor to the Transitional Sovereign Council of Sudan, also views the situation as similar to the months preceding the attack on el-Fasher. "We are watching the same script, reformed again over el-Obeid," he told DW, pointing to "the same grammar of concern, the same vocabulary of alarm and the same closing line that the world is watching." Last October, the warnings did not fail because of a lack of evidence, he said. "They failed because the warnings were never meant to become prevention," Fareid Eltayeb told DW. Justice, accountability, sanctions For Philippe Dam, Human Rights Watch's EU director for advocacy, speaking up is nevertheless important. "It sends a clear message to the leadership of the Rapid Support Forces, but the international states should also send a very clear message to the backers," he said. "The United Arab Emirates has a proven responsibility for fueling the conflict and the atrocities that are committed by the Rapid Support Forces; those involved should be sanctioned," Dam told DW. However, the United Arab Emirates has denied any involvement in the war, or support for the RSF. The SAF is officially supported by Egypt, Turkey, Russia and Iran. In his view, immediate sanctions could help to protect civilians and still prevent atrocities. "Sanctioning the RSF leadership today is essential given their command responsibility in the crimes the RSF commit and to make clear that this person should have no role in the future of the country," he added. RSF's General Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo, also known as Hemedti, established his "Government of Peace and Unity" in areas under his control in 2025. However, Hemedti actually claims to have jurisdiction over all of Sudan, just like his counterpart, General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan of the Sudanese Armed Forces. So far, the US has sanctioned both generals in January 2025, as well as multiple individuals linked to both factions later on. The EU also sanctioned individuals and entities linked to both sides, however, the UN has neither sanctioned the generals nor their respective organizations as a whole. "The designation of the RSF as a terrorist organization is the only way to make it harder for the United Arab Emirates to continue supporting and funding one genocide after another in Sudan," Amgad Fareid Eltayeb agrees. "However, the world chooses not to act seriously," he fears. In his view, every statement from the international community that mourns the coming atrocity while avoiding naming its financier, is not a step toward prevention, it's a step around it." Edited by: Andreas Illmer