How Europe's growing need for cooling is reshaping electricity demand

Europe's June heatwave has driven up electricity demand and wholesale power prices across the continent, highlighting the growing impact of cooling needs on electricity systems. Extreme heat is putting increasing pressure on Europe's electricity grids as rising temperatures increase the need for air conditioning in homes, offices and businesses, driving up electricity demand, tightening power markets and, in some cases, reducing electricity supply. Although air-conditioning remains far less common in Europe than in many other parts of the world, ownership is rising as heatwaves become more frequent. Around 20% of households have air conditioning, according to the International Energy Agency, and that share is expected to grow as the continent warms. “As Europe heats up, a growing number of people are reconsidering. Over the past 10 years, ownership of ACs has increased by about half, and annual sales are now about 30% higher than they were only 5 years ago,” Fabian Voswinkel, energy efficiency policy analyst at the International Energy Agency (IEA), told Euronews. Last week, Germany recorded exceptionally high temperatures on three consecutive days, with the eastern town of Coschen reaching 41.7°C on 28 June. France recorded its hottest June day on record on 24 June, while temperatures reached 43.8°C in Palluau in western France. Spain also experienced its hottest June days on record on 23 and 24 June. The IEA expects cooling demand to become a growing source of electricity consumption, although it is unlikely to overtake other drivers such as electric vehicles, data centres and heat pumps. "Cooling is an important, though not dominant, contributor to electricity demand growth in Europe," Voswinkel said. How much did electricity demand increase? There are no Europe-wide figures yet showing how much electricity was used specifically for cooling during the June 2026 heatwave. To estimate its impact, Euronews Business analysed daily electricity demand in the EU's four largest economies before and during the hottest period of June. The first half of June provides a useful baseline because the late-June heatwave had not yet taken hold across the four countries. Although some regions experienced warmer-than-average conditions earlier in the month, electricity demand broadly reflected seasonal patterns, making it easier to compare with the sharp increase recorded later in June. The figures show that electricity demand increased across all four of the EU's largest economies as the heatwave intensified. According to Eurelectric, in Germany, daily consumption rose from 1,267 GWh on 11 June to 1,396 GWh on 25 June. France recorded an even larger increase, from 1,048 GWh to 1,255 GWh over the same period, while demand also climbed in Italy and Spain. Although the increases varied between countries, the overall pattern was clear: hotter weather translated into higher electricity consumption. The largest absolute increase was recorded in France, where daily electricity demand rose by almost 20% over the two-week period. Germany, Italy and Spain also recorded noticeable increases, although the scale varied between countries. According to the French electricity grid operator RTE, during periods of intense heat, for every degree Celsius increase, energy consumption generally rises by between 0.7 GW and 1 GW (depending on the time of day), which is three times less than the impact of a one-degree drop in temperature during winter. It is highly likely, therefore, that the effect of cooling needs was largely behind the average daily increase of 10 to 14 GW in consumption last week, compared to an equivalent period with seasonal temperatures. Wholesale electricity prices also surged The increase in electricity demand, coupled with tighter supply, was mirrored in wholesale power markets. As cooling demand rose during the heatwave, wholesale electricity prices climbed sharply across Europe's largest electricity markets, although the increase varied depending on each country's energy mix and market conditions. Wholesale electricity prices are the prices suppliers pay to buy electricity before selling it to households and businesses. They respond almost immediately to changes in supply and demand and are widely seen as an indicator of stress in the electricity system. Although price spikes do not immediately affect most consumers, who are often protected by fixed or regulated tariffs, sustained increases can eventually feed through into retail electricity bills when suppliers renew contracts or regulators adjust tariffs. According to Eurelectric data, wholesale electricity prices rose significantly in Germany, France and Spain during the heatwave. Comparable data for Italy was not available. In all three markets, prices peaked between 23 and 24 June, coinciding with the period when electricity demand and temperatures were at their highest. Germany, which shares a wholesale electricity market with Luxembourg, recorded the highest prices, exceeding €200/MWh. France also experienced a sharp increase, with prices reaching almost €160/MWh, while Spain recorded a more moderate rise, peaking at just over €110/MWh. The surge in prices reflected more than higher electricity demand alone. Across northwestern Europe, during the peak of the heatwave, Germany's wind generation fell sharply just as demand was increasing. With less cheap wind power available, the market had to rely on more expensive gas- and coal-fired generation, which set the wholesale price. Normally, France is Germany's main source of relatively cheap imported electricity. But this time, France was forced to reduce nuclear power generation. France’s national utility provider, EDF, had to cut nuclear power generation by 4.1 GW, equivalent to roughly 7% of France's electricity demand at the time, because river water temperatures rose too high, limiting the availability of safe cooling water for reactors. Cooling is becoming a bigger part of Europe's energy use The increase in demand and prices comes as cooling has become a much larger part of Europe's energy consumption essentials. Eurostat data shows that households' annual energy consumption specifically for cooling has roughly doubled across the EU since 2015, with France, Germany, Italy and Spain all recording significant increases over the past decade. The trend coincides with a decade marked by repeated extreme heat. Europe experienced one of its worst heatwave summers on record in 2022, following the devastating 2003 heatwave, while southeastern Europe recorded its longest heatwave on record in 2024. Even so, cooling still accounted for just 0.8% of the EU's final energy consumption in 2024, highlighting that air conditioning remains far less widespread than in countries such as the United States or Japan. Is Europe ready for more frequent heatwaves? According to Fabian Voswinkel, energy efficiency policy analyst at the International Energy Agency, Europe's electricity systems can generally accommodate growing demand for cooling, although the impact will differ between countries. "Managing this growth will depend primarily on efficiency and flexibility. Improving the performance of cooling equipment can significantly reduce additional electricity demand, especially given the continued use of less efficient portable units in many markets." Voswinkel also said that solar power will become increasingly important because cooling demand is highest during the day, when solar generation is also at its strongest. This means much of the additional electricity demand can be met with relatively low-carbon electricity, reducing the need for additional storage. However, future electricity demand will not depend on rising temperatures alone. The impact of more frequent heatwaves will vary according to air-conditioning ownership, building efficiency and how effectively electricity systems can shift demand and store renewable energy. As Europe warms, air conditioning is becoming less a matter of comfort than of public health and safety, underscoring the need for electricity systems that can meet growing cooling demand.