Why you should trade for Guerrero Jr., Tucker or J...

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is one of only three players with at least 800 hits, 100 home runs and 1,500 total bases in the five seasons preceding this one (also: Shohei Ohtani, Jose Ramirez). He's the defending ALCS Most Valuable Player and, if there had been an MVP of the ALDS and, had his Toronto Blue Jays emerged victorious in the World Series, he might have had an MVP award clean sweep. Guerrero hit eight home runs in last year's postseason, tied for the second-most by any player in a single postseason. However, in a 2026 season that feels like it's been filled with unbelievable twists, this one might take the cake: Through 81 games played, Guerrero has hit half as many home runs (4) and has an OPS 594 points lower than he did in those 18 postseason games in 2025. It gets worse! Guerrero scored only 38 fantasy points in June. That was his fewest in any month (if we combine March/April and September/October) since September of his rookie year in 2019. Among the hitters who scored more this June are Jonah Heim, Nick Loftin, Javier Sanoja, Samad Taylor and Donovan Walton. Not one of them has been started in as many as 7% of ESPN leagues on a single day all year. Guerrero's struggles have rekindled the "overrated" debate among fantasy baseball managers, built in part around his being the only one out of the first 20 hitters taken in ESPN drafts (on average) during the preseason to have never managed as many as 35 home runs, 200 hits, 100 runs scored or 25 stolen bases in any of the four seasons preceding this one. He has been annually hailed as a reliable "strong return on investment" pick, but this year, he's on pace for only 356 fantasy points. So what's wrong with Guerrero? A quick look under the hood shows that little has changed with his bat speed, contact rate or propensity to hit for a high batting average, though that latter number speaks more to his expected average (.294) than his actual number (.268). But Guerrero's contact quality has dipped, as Statcast registers his hard-hit rate at more than 6% below his 2025 number, his Barrel rate more than 5% below and average exit velocity nearly 2 mph down. He is also hitting more ground balls (50.2% rate) than in any of the preceding three seasons and he's struggling against breaking pitches (.188 BA, .219 wOBA) in a way that he hasn't in the past. Guerrero has battled elbow and back injuries over the past six weeks, missing a pair of games in late May due to an elbow contusion following being hit by a pitch, and another two games in mid-June due to his back. He's batting .234/.275/.306 with only one home run over the 28 games since the earliest of those ailments popped up, though strangely enough, he has nearly a 4% higher hard-hit rate during that time than in the 53 games that preceded it. Still, it's difficult not to suspect that injuries might be the primary cause of Guerrero's recent struggles, and to wonder whether an IL stint to fully heal might help his rest-of-year cause. It's a good time to trade for Guerrero, regardless of league depth, though perhaps not with the highest-of-high-ceilings desire that many fantasy managers want from similar, underperforming trade targets. Acquiring Guerrero probably won't be the solution for a struggling fantasy team in need of a big second-half push. However, what he should do for you is to rebound to his old, familiar 400-plus-point fantasy thresholds, which is a front-half lineup starter you can count on -- someone who might prove to be the final puzzle piece for a team weak at first base or with a lot of risk/reward types. First basemen I prefer Guerrero to: Bryce Harper, Matt Olson. Guerrero isn't the only early-round pick to be in the midst of seemingly inexplicable struggles. Let's examine two other sluggers to determine their degree of hope entering the season's second half. Kyle Tucker, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers The Dodgers have invested $240 million over the next four seasons in Tucker. Thus far, we have watched him score fewer fantasy points in 79 games (177) than he did in his disappointing final 79 games played for the Chicago Cubs last season (201). Like Guerrero, Tucker has recently dealt with back spasms, missing a pair of games and leaving another early last week, though he did rebound with a home run against the San Diego Padres during their weekend series at Petco Park. One can only wonder whether injuries have contributed to the slugger's struggles, as almost all of his metrics this season are down from years past and he has a history of underperforming while actively playing through his ailments. Tucker's average bat speed is down nearly a full tick, his Barrel rate is down nearly 5% and he has his highest whiff rate since 2019. His is a tougher trade-target case to make than Guerrero's for those reasons -- though he's also in one of the richest top-to-bottom lineups -- and he had some of his best single-game contact quality metrics over the past four days. It's not outrageous to suggest Tucker merely needed time to adjust to his new surroundings and, since he's a player who brings about as much upside as anyone, he's worth the acquisition. Outfielders I prefer Tucker to: Byron Buxton, Fernando Tatis Jr. Julio Rodriguez, OF, Seattle Mariners For "J-Rod," the month of May seemed to follow his familiar annual pattern of struggling in April, then heating up the remainder of the year, as he hit .274/.309/.590 with 10 home runs in 28 games. Unfortunately, he then followed it up with a .229/.312/.313, two-homer June, though he did steal seven bases in 25 games to help his rotisserie managers. As with Guerrero and Tucker, Rodriguez had an injury scare of his own recently, missing a game and leaving another early due to a hamstring issue (although his three steals in four tries in 10 games since are encouraging in that department). Rodriguez's bat speed remains elite, he's making better zone contact than he has in any of his four prior seasons, and his Statcast xwOBA (.350) would also set a personal best. Now consider this: Rodriguez has .297/.351/.552 career second-half rates and he has never had lower than an .818 OPS after the All-Star break in any of his first four MLB seasons. He's one of the rare players whose second-half history carries relevance in fantasy leagues and, in ESPN's standard points league format, that level of performance goes a long way to make up for the points he costs himself due to his free-swinging ways. Coming off the month he has had, Rodriguez is one of the best trade targets out there currently (assuming you can get him at a reasonable price). Outfielders I prefer Rodriguez to: Tucker, Buxton.