Russia planning attack on Poland to test NATO resolve, US claims

Russia planning attack on Poland to test NATO resolve, US claims The US has warned that Russia is planning an armed 'provocation' against Poland to test NATO's resolve, according to reports The US has warned that Russia is planning an armed "provocation" against Poland to test NATO's resolve, according to reports. Washington has reportedly told Warsaw that such an assault could involve Polish critical infrastructure being targeted by missiles and drones or, in a more extreme scenario, Russian troops crossing the border into NATO territory. Sources close to Polish President Karol Nawrocki told Polish outlet Onet that Washington said the alleged plot could take place within months and is aimed at escalating tensions and halting Western military and financial support for Ukraine. Last month, allies collectively pledged $4bn in military aid to Ukraine. The US "systematically informs Poland about ever-new Russian plans for a conventional attack on NATO's eastern flank, from which Poland is by no means excluded", a source close to Mr Nawrocki was quoted as saying. Onet's security sources outlined scenarios including drone attacks on critical infrastructure or simulated air strikes. One Polish intelligence source said the most extreme scenario would involve a "hybrid attack in the border region" by Russian or Belarusian troops. The source said such an incident could be presented by Russia as a mistake, such as troops accidentally crossing into Polish territory because of a GPS failure. Polish sources told Onet that Russia would hope Poland, rather than responding with force, would be pressured by the US into negiating with Russia or Belarus. They said this could put Moscow in a position where it demands an end to Western support for Ukraine in exchange for withdrawing from Polish territory. An ambassador to one of Poland's NATO allies and a member of the Polish defence ministry also told Onet that there was a serious risk of a provocation in Poland or one of the Baltic states. A Baltic security source told The Telegraph that such plans were under discussion in Moscow. Such an attack could be launched either from Kaliningrad, Russia's Baltic enclave bordering Poland, or from Belarus, the source said. It comes after a report published on Thursday by the International Institute of Strategic Studies think tank said Russia had likely used shadow ships to launch drones over Europe, as it monitored military sites and tested the air defences of NATO nations. The report mapped 144 suspected drone sightings across Europe, including in NATO members Germany, France, Belgium, the Netherlands, the UK and Denmark, between 2024 and 2026. The sightings peaked in late 2025, forcing the temporary closure of several European airports, including in Germany, Spain and Denmark. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen described the incidents in her country as the "most serious attack on Danish critical infrastructure to date".