El Niño to ‘strengthen rapidly’ and fuel extreme weather. When will Europe face its wrath?

Forecasters warn that a strong El Niño is increasing the likelihood of extreme weather, but is Europe immune from its impact? El Niño conditions have developed in the tropical Pacific and are forecast to “strengthen rapidly” over the coming months, as the world braces for more bouts of extreme weather. The World Meteorological Organization’s (WMO) global seasonal climate update indicates a strong El Niño event will occur during July to September, increasing the likelihood of heatwaves, droughts and heavy rainfall. “The WMO community has launched an unprecedented mobilisation to coordinate activities across the United Nations and at regional level to support governments, humanitarian organisations and climate-sensitive sectors,” says WMO Secretary General Celeste Saulo. “Advanced seasonal forecasts and early warnings are vital to save lives and cushion the impact on our economies and our communities.” What is El Niño and what does it affect? El Niño (Spanish for ‘the boy’) is a natural weather phenomenon that occurs irregularly – every two to seven years on average – when sea temperatures in the Eastern Pacific Ocean become unusually warm. This pushes global temperatures up, paving the way for more frequent extreme weather events. Previous El Niño events, such as the one that formed in May 2023 and lasted until March 2024, for example, contributed towards record-breaking heat. This helped fuel long-standing droughts and wildfires around the world. However, El Niño’s impact is mainly felt in the tropics. South America, the southern US, East Africa and Central Asia have all experienced heightened flood risks during previous El Niño events – while droughts and wildfire risks rise across large parts of Australia, northern parts of South America and in certain Asian countries such as Indonesia. How does El Niño impact Europe? In Europe, El Niño’s impacts are much more indirect and tend to be less severe. The natural phenomenon could increase the likelihood of more unsettled conditions later in the year, such as a milder, wetter and windier autumn and early winter, but it is unlikely to impact Europe’s 2026 summer. This means that the recent weeks of blistering heat that has killed thousands of Europeans is not a result of El Niño, despite newspapers linking the two together. However, extreme weather overseas will still have a knock-on effect for Europe – with experts warning of potential food shortages. The IHE Delft Institute for Water Education in the Netherlands has been working in areas that are directly impacted by El Niño and warn that many staple foods that Europe imports could be at risk. In Nicaragua, for example, key crops such as maize and beans may fail in already fragile areas, leading to food insecurity and income loss in the country. A lack of rain and low flows in rivers also mean that irrigated crops in Colombia, Northeast Brazil and India will face severe restrictions or will need to rely more on groundwater, potentially causing overexploitation in the area – and export shortages. ‘El Niño is a distraction’ from climate change While El Niño’s impacts aren’t to be undermined, climate experts have pointed out that climate change is playing a much bigger role in extreme weather and rising temperatures. Most El Niño events have temporarily increased global average temperatures by around 0.2℃. Climate change, on the other hand, has pushed the global surface (sea and air) temperature up by approximately 1.3 - 1.5℃ compared to pre-industrial levels. El Niño’s impacts are therefore compounded by an already warming world, rather than being solely responsible for the fallout experts predict. This is why 2025 was the third warmest year on record – hotter than the El Niño year of 2016 – despite the naturally forming cool drag of a La Niña event (El Niño’s naturally-occuring counterpart that typically cools global temperatures). “El Niño is a natural phenomenon,” climate scientist Friederike Otto from Imperial College London said back in May, before El Niño conditions had officially started. “It comes and goes. Climate change on the contrary gets worse as long as we do not stop burning fossil fuels. So climate change is the reason to freak out.” Ioanna Vergini, founder of global weather forecasting platform WFY24, tells Euronews Earth that El Niño has been used as a “distraction” from climate change while Europe baked under 40℃ temperatures last week. A rapid attribution analysis from World Weather Attribution (WWA) found that daytime highs and overnight temperatures seen during the recent heat dome would have been “virtually impossible to occur at this time of year” as recently as 1976 – but have been made possible due to continued fossil-fuel emissions.