Coco Gauff vs. Karolina Muchova: Who will win

WIMBLEDON, England -- Coco Gauff couldn't hide her respect for Karolina Muchova. "I think she's one of the most talented players on tour," Gauff said. "I'm sure that she's going to keep making strides on this level." That was nearly three years ago, and it was after the two had played for the first time on tour in the Cincinnati Open final. Gauff won the match 6-3, 6-4, for her then-biggest title to date. But they have played many times since -- and, while their journeys have been radically different, both have gone on to have varying degrees of success. Gauff, 22, has since won two major singles titles and become a top-10 mainstay. Muchova, 29, reached the final at the French Open in 2023, but has struggled with a number of injuries that have kept her sidelined for extended periods, including undergoing a wrist surgery that kept her out for much of the season in 2024. But on Tuesday at the All England Club, they each advanced to the semifinals at Wimbledon for the first time. For both players, it completes the major semifinal set -- having now reached the round at all four Slams -- and this is just the second time since the US Open in 2003 in which multiple players have accomplished the feat at the same time. Gauff and Muchova will now face one another Thursday on Centre Court with a spot in the Wimbledon final on the line. Both are aware of the huge opportunity, and with a more inexperienced group of quarterfinalists remaining on the other side of the draw, whomever wins their clash will likely be the favorite for the title. Here's what you need to know ahead of Thursday's blockbuster semifinal match between the two. The case for Gauff Since making her breakthrough at Wimbledon as a 15-year-old qualifier in 2019 and reaching the fourth round, Gauff has largely struggled on grass. While she had made the round of 16 on two other occasions, she hadn't won a match on the surface in two years entering the tournament this year. She lost in the first round in 2025 and fell in the opening round in her lone tuneup tournament this year in Berlin. When asked on court about how she was feeling about reaching the semifinals, Gauff couldn't even hide her surprise. "Honestly, pretty insane," she said. She expanded during her news conference later: "If you told me [in Berlin] I would be in the semis of this tournament, I'd be like, 'You're funny.'" But having had additional time to prepare for grass after a stunning third-round exit at the French Open, Gauff has looked more comfortable on the surface than perhaps ever before. And while the wins are impressive, it's the fight and resolve she has used throughout her run that makes it even more so. Gauff has needed to go to a decider in four of her five matches thus far -- struggling to close out in her second- and third-round matches and having to come back in the fourth-round and on Tuesday against Jessica Pegula in the quarters. Through it all, she has not allowed herself to panic -- and simply found a way to win. Against Pegula, she had an error-riddled start -- with four double faults and 17 unforced errors in the opener -- but showed a dramatic improvement in the remaining two sets. She utilized her strong serve, notching seven aces on the day and one recording 126 miles per hour, and seizing on her first opportunity to break in the eighth game of the second set. She closed out the set to force the decider in the next game with an ace. "She stepped up on pressure points, I thought, really well," Pegula said after the match. "When she needed to lock in and just not miss a ball, that's what she did. "But that's, I think, vintage Coco. I think that's happened in all of our matches. It's just whether I'm able to capitalize on it or not. But she's the best in the world at that." Gauff is now the youngest woman to reach all four major semifinals since Maria Sharapova in 2007. Gauff said she has become increasingly confident the farther she has gone in the tournament and has proved to herself exactly what she's capable of. "I've played three opponents in a row where I feel [they] are really tough opponents in general, but especially for me on grass," Gauff said. "I felt like in the first set I was maybe rushing out of some points too early, either trying to either get out of the rally or overhit too much. "Towards the end, I just really honed in on my game and realized I don't have to play a spectacular point every time to win, even though there were some spectacular points. I think just trusting myself, trusting that my groundstrokes are good enough to be with anyone on this surface." Gauff and Muchova have never played before on grass, but they have met six additional times since that first clash in Cincinnati in 2023. And those results should only help Gauff's self-belief even more: She has won six of their seven meetings, including both matches at majors. Not to mention, after winning their first four encounters, including in the semifinals at the 2023 US Open, Gauff went on to win the title at all four events. The case for Muchova Perhaps best described as your favorite player's favorite player, Muchova has long drawn praise from many of her peers and predecessors for her dynamic all-around game, versatility and athleticism. Even ahead of their quarterfinal match at the US Open in September, Naomi Osaka echoed Gauff's comments and called her "one of the most talented players out there." Mats Wilander, the seven-time major champion and former ATP No. 1, once called her "the most complete tennis player on the women's side in the world." Her skill and potential has rarely been in doubt. But, as mentioned earlier, Muchova has been plagued by injuries and has often been disrupted for long stretches. When she's healthy, she's tough to beat. Muchova won the 1000-level title at Qatar in February, defeating Victoria Mboko in the final. Mboko was equally complimentary after the match. "She can play offense, defense, and she can slice and change things up, so it really caught me off guard," she said. Grass had been a challenge in recent years. While she had reached the quarterfinals at Wimbledon in 2019 and 2021, she had gone a staggering 0-4 since. But this year, everything seems to have come together. She won the first title of her career on the surface at the Bad Homburg Open last month and is now riding a nine-match win streak -- the longest of her career. While Gauff has had to fight for many of her wins throughout the fortnight, Muchova has largely been in control. She has dropped just one set -- against 2024 champion Barbora Krejcikova in the fourth round. Krejcíkova was disappointed by the result but admitted there wasn't much she could have done in the "great match." "She's super talented," Krejcíkova said. "Today, some of the shots she played, crazy. ... She's really high-ranked right now. She's healthy. That's also the most important for her. When she's healthy, she's playing great tennis. She's also in great form. She played really well the previous week. Right now, yeah, she's still on the wave. She's surfing it." Against the resurgent Osaka on Tuesday, Muchova was in her trademark form, showcasing her serve-and-volley technique, as well as her slice and creative variety. While they each had 24 winners, Muchova had just 21 unforced errors, compared to Osaka's 32. Osaka said she struggled to find energy, and just couldn't find answers for everything Muchova was sending her way in the tight match. "I feel like with Muchova, I mean, her slice, and going in, she has really good hands," Osaka said. "That's really difficult on grass." No woman has become the Wimbledon champion after winning a lead-in event on grass since Sharapova in 2004, but Muchova is now just two matches away. While very aware of her lopsided record against Gauff, she did win their last meeting at the quarterfinals in Stuttgart in April on clay. She knows it will be a battle but sounded optimistic when speaking to reporters Tuesday night. "Well, she is just a great athlete overall," Muchova said of Gauff. "One of the best in the world in our sport. It is tough to play against her. I'm happy we [are] 0-0 on the grass. That's a bit better balance for me there." So, who's going to win? At the time of publish, Muchova is the ever-so-slight betting favorite to win the Wimbledon title, with Gauff right behind her. But Thursday's match could truly go either way. Like both of their quarterfinal matches, it could be determined by just a handful of crucial points in the biggest moments. And they have both proved they can win those. So ultimately, it might just come down to experience. Gauff has won on the biggest stages when the stakes are highest, and Muchova simply hasn't. Yet anyway. Thursday will mark Gauff's 10th career appearance on Centre Court, and after defeating Pegula, she said walking on to it no longer made her nervous. Muchova, who faced Osaka on No. 1 Court on Tuesday, has never played on it. In a match that should be close between two players with such a high level of momentum and ability, that could be the difference.