As the U.S. war with Iran resumes, there is little sign that diplomacy can stop it.
Efforts by Arab, Pakistani and other mediators to revive negotiations or restore a ceasefire have shown no public signs of progress, and the overall feeling in the Middle East and beyond is that the fighting will simply continue for now, according to two analysts and a person familiar with the situation.
The White House is “not really sure where this is headed,” said a former U.S. official in touch with Trump administration staffers, who, like others quoted in this story, was granted anonymity to describe sensitive conversations. “This could go on for some time. There’s no trust between Iran and the U.S., and that’s kind of the basis for any kind of diplomacy.”
The renewed fighting includes a U.S. naval blockade of Iranian shipping and Tehran launching multiple attacks on U.S. allies.
President Donald Trump has made clear Tehran must relinquish control of the vital energy shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz. But Iran has weathered previous assaults and still managed to threaten oil shipping with drones and missiles, and it’s not clear how this latest campaign would eliminate that threat.
“I think the president will try to destroy Iran’s capabilities threatening the strait,” said Fred Fleitz, Trump’s former National Security Council chief of staff and vice chair of the American First Policy Institute’s American Security. “I think that we will have to take a so-called mowing the grass strategy, where the U.S. and Israel will respond militarily to provocations, then maybe we simply have to wait until the Iranian people take their country back.”
Trump did offer a concession of sorts on Tuesday when he reversed himself and said the U.S. would not impose a 20 percent fee on countries shipping goods through the strait. Instead, he said the Navy would assist ships through the waterway in exchange for investment deals with the United States.
The latest about-face is a hallmark of the president’s decision-making process and the minute-by-minute governing policy he favors.
But White House allies see the American response as necessary.
Trump “has to respond when the Iranians break faith, and I think that’s what he’s doing,” said Alex Gray, National Security Council chief of staff during Trump’s first term. “We can’t get back to an equilibrium unless the Americans demonstrate our willingness to escalate as needed. … I think it’s more of a tactical response to their bad behavior.”
Just before the blockade was to go into effect on Tuesday, Iran launched a fresh wave of missile and drone attacks against Bahrain, Jordan and Kuwait — all nations that host U.S. military bases. The Iranian strikes come less than a day after a punishing five-hour American air assault on Iranian targets.
The Kuwaiti military alone said it shot down 33 drones, a cruise missile and a ballistic missile.
And the American military retains a powerful presence in the Middle East — another indication of continued hostilities.
The U.S. maintains two aircraft carriers in the region, part of about 20 warships and a contingent of 2,500 Marines at sea. Most of the ships are capable of firing long-range missiles, and warplanes and long-range rocket artillery remain stationed in friendly countries along the Persian Gulf.
Overall, there are about 50,000 American troops deployed in the Middle East since the war began in late February with U.S. and Israeli airstrikes against Iranian government and military targets.
“The arsenal remains in place,” said one U.S. official. “We’re there, and we’re swapping out pieces, but we’re not going anywhere.”
The U.S. Central Command said in a statement that on Tuesday night local time, U.S. forces “began launching an additional round of strikes against Iran to continue degrading Iranian capabilities used to attack commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.” The strikes took place “as American forces prepare to resume the naval blockade against Iranian ports and coastal areas.”
Windward intelligence, a private firm that tracks shipping though the strait, said on Tuesday it was tracking 23 vessels operating in the Persian Gulf “as potential blockade-breakers, 10 of them laden with approximately $432.3 million in cargo.”
The monthslong bottleneck continues to wait for a final, workable agreement to resume shipping through the strait. And while the U.S. and Iran agreed to a memorandum of understanding designed to halt the fighting just a month ago, both sides have since accused the other of violating its terms on multiple fronts.
Iran, for instance, interpreted the agreement as granting it control over the strait, through which flows a critical amount of oil, fertilizer and other global needs. The U.S., however, has tried to help ships get through the passage in ways Iran saw as a violation. The U.S. argued that Iran’s firing on commercial vessels trying to traverse the strait undermined the truce.
While in Ankara, Turkey, attending a NATO summit this month, Trump declared an end to the ceasefire.
“To me, I think it’s over,” he said upon arriving at the gathering just hours after U.S. forces struck Iranian military sites in retaliation for Iranian attacks on commercial shipping.