The major season reaches its conclusion this week on the Southport coast as the world's best golfers head to Royal Birkdale for the 154th Open Championship. Marking its 11th time hosting golf's oldest major, Birkdale last welcomed the event in 2017 during Jordan Spieth’s wild, unforgettable ride to the Claret Jug.
Links purists are in for a treat this week. Thanks to an uncharacteristic heatwave in the United Kingdom, the forecast features dry, sunny skies and highs climbing into the 80s. Expect the famously flat, dune-lined fairways to run firm, fast, and beautifully baked out, making accurate ball-striking absolutely vital.
THE OPEN TEE TIMES PUT SCOTTIE SCHEFFLER, RORY MCILROY IN LOADED ROYAL BIRKDALE GROUPS
Whether the light coastal breezes offer a true defense or players tear up the dry turf, predicting the Champion Golfer of the Year won't be easy. In fact, nothing has been easy for me when betting on the PGA Tour this season, as I'm getting absolutely crushed and -51 units (u). I.e., fade or follow at your own peril.
For the record, I'm risking 2.41u on picks to win, profiting 20u if any of them cash, and 3u on my top-5/10/20 bets. With that in mind, here are my best bets, placement values, and "one-and-done" picks for Royal Birkdale.
The following odds are based on my previous bets on the golfers listed below. Subject to change.
🇪🇸 Jon Rahm +2487 to win at Polymarket (0.8u) and Top-10 with ties +217 at Kalshi (0.75u)
🇺🇸 Scottie Scheffler Top-5 with ties at Kalshi (1u)
🇺🇸 Collin Morikawa +3471 to win (0.58u) at Polymarket and Top-5 with ties +684 at Kalshi (0.25u)
🇺🇸 Justin Thomas +7592 to win (0.26u) at Polymarket and Top-10 with ties +455 at Kalshi (0.25u)
🏴 Robert MacIntyre +3500 to win (0.57u) and Top-20 with ties +150 (0.75u), both at DraftKings
I’m not going to lie: Part of the reason I’m betting Rahm is that there’s a chance Spain beats the English in the 2026 FIFA World Cup final Sunday and it would be funny if Rahm, a Spaniard, won the British Open in England that same day.
There is a lot more to it, which I’ll discuss in a second, but man, that would be hilarious. It would go down in England’s history books as the "Spanish Invasion" or probably more clever and British. Plus, my sharp golf picks have been terrible this season, so why not have a little fun?
I’ve already parlayed Rahm winning The Open Championship with Spain to win the World Cup and England to be the World Cup runner-up at +13255 odds via FanDuel. I also parlayed Rahm winning the British Open and Spain winning the World Cup at +8930 odds. Regardless, it’s not like Rahm is a bad pick to win The Open.
LIV GOLF'S END MAY BE IMMINENT AFTER REPORT SIGNALS SAUDI ARABIA IS PREPARING TO CUT OFF FUNDING
He is one of the best golfers in the world, a two-time major champion, has won in Europe and on links courses, and doesn’t have a weak club in the bag. Besides a disappointing T38 at The Masters and a missed cut at the U.S. Open, Rahm has been awesome this year, with two wins on the LIV Tour and a T2 finish in the PGA Championship.
Rahm has gained strokes ball-striking (driving and on approach) in the last four Open Championships and on the greens in the last three, according to DataGolf.com. His best British Open finishes are T11 in 2019, T3 in 2021, T2 in 2023 and T7 in 2024.
He was decent last week at the Scottish Open: T37. Yet, Rahm rallied to make the cut after shooting +3 in the first round and hadn’t played in a tournament since the U.S. Open last month. The awkward LIV schedule hasn’t done a good job prepping him for the majors, but playing in Scotland is obviously a great tune-up for The Open.
Collin is in the Geoff Clark Golf Betting Hall of Fame after winning the 2021 British Open when I bet him at +3700. Driving accuracy and iron-play will be huge in determining the 2026 Champion Golfer of the Year, and those are two of Morikawa's specialties: fifth on TOUR this year in driving accuracy and second in Strokes Gained (SG): Approach (APP).
His notoriously inconsistent short-game (chipping and putting) has held him back from winning more. But Collin has gained strokes vs. the field in putting in eight of his last 10 tournaments and around-the-green (ARG) in nine of his past 11, per DataGolf.com.
Morikawa's ball-striking is so accurate he can average week with his short-game and still win the British Open. Collin won the 2026 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am at the best American links course while losing strokes with his putter and only gaining 0.63 strokes ARG.
I like that Bobby Mac hit his irons well at last week’s Scottish Open, for a second straight tournament, and two of his last three, but struggled Sunday and finished T6 when he started the final round tied with the lead, which might make him less popular this week. Maybe not and it doesn’t matter. All that matters is if he plays well.
Nevertheless, MacIntyre ranked 120th on TOUR in SG: APP this season entering the Scottish Open. He gained 3.6 strokes with his irons at the Travelers Championship two starts back and 7.5 in Scotland last week. When Bobby Mac is dialed in with his irons, he contends.
MacIntyre has gained strokes on approach in six tournaments this season; here’s how he finished in them: Sony Open (T4), THE PLAYERS Championship (fourth), Valero Texas Open (T2), RBC Canadian Open (T15), Travelers (T10) and the Scottish Open (T6).
Despite hitting his irons so poorly this year, Bobby Mac still ranked 15th in Par 4 scoring average and eighth in Par 4 Birdie or Better rate. For what it’s worth, I know this isn’t a great number. MacIntyre is +4000 this week and closed at double the price for the 2026 U.S. Open.
However, I’m betting players instead of numbers, and Bobby Mac is a Scot, who excels at links courses and will win a British Open before the end of his career. He’s made the cut at all six Open Championships, finishing T6 and T8 in his first two and T7 last year.
The +7500-ish odds is just too big of a number for JT who is a two-time major winner and playing pretty good golf lately. Last week's T50 at the Scottish Open broke a streak of seven consecutive T23-or-better finishes for Thomas, highlighted by a T4 at the PGA Championship and T17 at the U.S. Open.
His inconsistent driving could be a deal-breaker for JT at Royal Birkdale, but he's gained strokes vs. the field with driving accuracy seven of his last eight starts, per DataGolf.com. That said, short-game will be a separator this week and Thomas ranks second on TOUR in SG: ARG this season.
Not only does the four-time American Ryder Cupper have a world-class short-game but he's won at other courses where you have to be accurate, such as Harbour Town (RBC Heritage), TPC Sawgrass (THE PLAYERS), PGA National (host of The Honda Classic, now known as "The Cognizant Classic").
Ultimately, I'm just betting on Thomas's major-winning talent at a great price.
Mayo Cup season standings: 4,455th with $5,043,719
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I'm picking MacIntyre here because I have two entries in the Mayo Cup and I've already him for THE PLAYERS on my second entry, and I have Rahm available in both. So, this allows me to use MacIntyre and Rahm. Don't worry, I'm not doing much better in the other entry (3,340th place with $6,805,509).
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