Electoral boundary shakeup leaves politicians with a big decision

analysis Tasmania's electoral boundary shakeup leaves politicians deciding where to run Thu 16 Jul 2026 at 5:26am The next state election in Tasmania was already bound to be very different for an orange reason. But now, it's not just the arrival of One Nation that could change the game in Tasmania. There's a huge shake-up of electorates for political parties to contend with. On Wednesday, the Australian Electoral Commission handed down its new electoral boundaries — with 27 per cent of Tasmanian voters now finding themselves casting their votes somewhere else. Some notable politicians are among the 114,000 Tasmanians to be displaced. Kingborough and the Huon Valley, the regions south of Hobart, will move from Franklin to Clark. They're the home bases of Treasurer Eric Abetz, Labor treasury spokesperson Dean Winter, Greens leader Rosalie Woodruff and independent Peter George, who has announced he will not recontest the next election. Opposition Leader Josh Willie and independent MP Kristie Johnston are affected by a contentious move to shift the suburban Glenorchy City Council area out of Clark and into the rural electorate of Lyons. All six of them are proven vote winners, and now have a difficult decision to make. Stick with the electorate that voted them in, or move with the communities they've long been aligned with and live in. Johnston to stay in Clark, but others less clear Ms Johnston, a former mayor of Glenorchy, was the first to declare her position on Wednesday afternoon. She's staying in the inner-city electorate of Clark, rather than trying to ingratiate herself with the largely rural electorate of Lyons. "I've chosen to remain in Clark because it includes much of my former electorate, so I want to continue building my relationships and advocacy there," she said. "[New] Clark then is a natural and welcome extension, involving work to introduce myself and learn from those communities." An answer from Mr Willie was less forthcoming, with Labor putting out a generic response to questions about where he and Mr Winter will run. "Tasmanian Labor made a submission to the process supporting the rectification of the long-standing non-contiguity of Franklin, and the retention of the electorate's original name," a Labor spokesperson said. "All elected Labor members are focused on representing their electorates. Any decisions around future elections will be considered as part of the party's preselection process." Dr Woodruff said the Greens party room would consider what the changes mean for its four state MPs, while Mr Abetz is yet to state his intentions. Each decision matters. Name recognition tends to be important under the Hare-Clark system, and if all of Mr Winter, Mr Abetz and Dr Woodruff run in Clark, the race there gets crowded fast. That's 10 sitting MPs — potentially minus Mr Willie, who is understood to be seriously weighing up running in Lyons — running for just seven seats. And that's without even mentioning One Nation, which had 21 per cent primary support in a DemosAU poll this month, before the party has even registered in Tasmania. The field in Franklin without those three and Mr George suddenly looks pretty thin, which could potentially prompt Labor to urge Franklin-based upper house MPs Luke Edmunds and Sarah Lovell to consider making a run for the lower house. But it's not a fait accompli that all will move across, as Ms Johnston has illustrated. But unlike Ms Johnston, who was buoyed by strong voter flows right across Clark, and only lives a few minutes outside of the electorate she's chosen to stay in, Mr Winter, Mr Abetz and Dr Woodruff will live deep in Clark territory, well away from Franklin. That's not by itself a deal breaker — Lyons Liberal MP Jane Howlett has community links and keeps getting elected despite living in Battery Point — but campaigning away from your power base does tend to make things a fair bit harder. Unclear where Labor heavyweight will run Speaking of Lyons, federal Assistant Health Minister Rebecca White now finds herself living outside of that electorate following the redistribution. Lots of her loyal supporters, plus one of her two electorate offices, will now be stationed in Franklin — held by her colleague, Julie Collins, Minister for Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry. Ms White issued the same generic response Mr Willie and Mr Winter did, but party sources think it's most likely that she stays in Lyons — relying on her connections with those she currently represents, and her profile as a former state Labor leader. But Ms White and her state colleagues don't need to make decisions just yet. The AEC's surprise recommendation to rename Franklin as Tongerlongeter, after an Aboriginal resistance warrior, means public consultation has reopened on the whole proposal, with the final boundaries set to be issued next month.