Johor polls result raises stakes for Anwar in upcoming Negeri Sembilan election

analysis Asia Johor polls result raises stakes for Anwar in upcoming Negeri Sembilan election Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim and his Pakatan Harapan pact need to show they can campaign effectively in a state where the incumbent chief minister is from his own PKR party, analysts say. KUALA LUMPUR: A poor showing at the Johor state election has raised the stakes for Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim's Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition in the Aug 1 Negeri Sembilan polls, say analysts. They add that PH must leverage its advantage as the incumbent state government in order to retain Negeri Sembilan, failing which pressure could pile on Anwar to call a snap general election. PH could seek to replicate Barisan Nasional's (BN) strategy that helped gain it a landslide win in Johor by focusing on its own successes and development in Negeri Sembilan under PH chief minister Aminuddin Harun, the observers also say. “Anwar Ibrahim needs to show that he can campaign effectively for a state where the incumbent chief minister is from his own party, Parti Keadilan Rakyat,” Ong Kian Ming, an adjunct professor at Taylor's University, told CNA. BN won 48 out of 56 seats in the Johor state assembly at the Jul 11 polls, an increase of eight from the 2022 state polls. PH won the remaining eight seats, losing four from its previous tally of 12. The Democratic Action Party (DAP), a PH component party, lost four seats long regarded as its traditional strongholds to BN component parties. "DAP needs to stem the bleeding after poor state election results in Sabah and in Johor," added Ong, a former deputy minister of international trade and industry. “Negeri Sembilan may provide such an opportunity as it is the home state of DAP secretary-general Anthony Loke.” Meanwhile, BN must now show that its renewed momentum can travel beyond its traditional Johor stronghold, where it had exceptional organisational strength, a strong local brand and a popular chief minister in Onn Hafiz Ghazi, observers said. "BN needs to show that the ‘blue wave’ in Johor can be extended to another state, Negeri Sembilan, where it doesn’t have the same advantages as in Johor - incumbency, and a good chief minister candidate as a poster boy," said Ong. Blue is BN’s official colour and is used in its logo, and BN chairman Ahmad Zahid Hamidi had spoken about how the pact aims to use the Johor polls as a launchpad for its nationwide resurgence. The coalition could try achieving this by using positive momentum from Johor to convince voters it can govern Negeri Sembilan better than PH, or even strike an unofficial pact with Parti Islam Se-Malaysia (PAS) to consolidate the Malay vote and chip away at PH's support in the state, the observers added. PH holds 17 seats in the 36-seat Negeri Sembilan state legislative assembly, and forms the state government together with BN’s 14 seats. Perikatan Nasional (PN) holds the remaining five seats, split between PAS’ three seats and Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu)'s two seats. In the Johor state polls, PAS had urged its supporters to back BN in constituencies where PN was not fielding candidates, though BN has maintained that both pacts - which are rivals at the federal level - did not have an official cooperation agreement. The Negeri Sembilan polls come amid the backdrop of strained ties between BN and PH in the state. After 14 assemblymen from BN lynchpin party United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) pulled their support for Aminuddin in April, he called for snap polls in Negeri Sembilan, even though the next election was due only by November 2028. The UMNO assemblymen attributed their move to what they described as Aminuddin’s improper handling of a royal crisis in the state, but later backtracked on their withdrawal on orders from the party’s central leadership. PH and BN are each expected to contest all 36 seats in the upcoming polls, replicating their head-on contest in Johor. Candidates’ official nomination will take place on Saturday (Jul 18). WHAT SHOULD PH CAMPAIGN IN NEGERI SEMBILAN? Azmi Hassan, a senior fellow at the Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research, told CNA that PH must lean into its incumbency in Negeri Sembilan and not repeat its strategy for Johor. "Yes, PH was not part of the Johor government, but I think when the federal ministers from PH went down to campaign in Johor, they acted like the opposition. Never did they try to convince that PH would be a better state government," he said. PH needs to localise the Negeri Sembilan contest around Aminuddin’s record, candidate quality and bread-and-butter issues, said Asrul Sani, an associate vice-president at strategic advisory firm The Asia Group. In Negeri Sembilan, bread-and-butter concerns centre around cost of living, housing affordability, wages, and local infrastructure, Asrul said, noting that an economic “spillover” from nearby Klang Valley has raised costs faster than local incomes, particularly in Seremban and Nilai. "Despite Anwar Ibrahim’s extensive campaigning in Johor, PH still performed poorly, suggesting that national personalities and federal issues alone may not be enough to shape state election outcomes," he told CNA. Syaza Shukri, a political scientist at the International Islamic University of Malaysia (IIUM), said PH’s “biggest lesson” from Johor is that it needs to separate national from local issues. "We understand PH’s strength is the fact that it is leading the federal government, but that might not resonate with voters in state elections," she said, adding that PH needs to convince voters that "continuity" under Aminuddin is better. Ong from Taylor’s University said PH should not bring up issues related to former prime minister Najib Razak and his corruption cases if they do not relate to Negeri Sembilan, and suggested that the coalition has to run a more "disciplined and coordinated" campaign there. During the hustings in Johor, federal Housing and Local Government Minister Nga Kor Ming had said he would resign from the Cabinet if BN won more than 40 seats in the Johor polls. Nga, who is from DAP, has since sought to clarify that his resignation pledge was conditional on Najib being released without serving a sentence commensurate with his corruption offences. Political scientist Wong Chin Huat from Sunway University said DAP leaders should exercise restraint while campaigning in Negeri Sembilan, as he called Nga’s remarks “completely unnecessary”. “(Nga) staying out of the Negeri Sembilan campaign may be better for the party,” Wong told CNA. Based on the results in Johor, Wong highlighted “some swing towards BN” among DAP’s Chinese and Indian bases. “DAP should acknowledge it and instead of downplaying it, which may provoke some of its former voters to prove the case in Negeri Sembilan,” he added. In an interview with CNA on Monday, the DAP chief Loke said PH will look to run a more cohesive and positive campaign in Negeri Sembilan, with a "totally different" approach compared with Johor. "One of the weaknesses (in Johor is that) probably our messaging was a bit too mixed, and then in the second half our campaign tended to be a bit more negative," said Loke, who stressed that he will "personally oversee" the campaign narrative. “So I think this is something that we should try to avoid in Negeri Sembilan - that it should be run on a positive campaign, try to talk about what we should do, what we have achieved, and what we can do for the people.” Loke acknowledged that BN ran an "effective" campaign in Johor by taking all the credit for the state's achievements as the incumbent government. "I'm not trying to blame my colleagues in Johor. In Johor, of course we struggled to find a positive narrative, because we are not the incumbent state government, and the incumbent state government has something to show," he added. A BREWING UMNO-PAS PACT? Negeri Sembilan UMNO chief Jalaluddin Alias said BN’s decisive victory in Johor will boost the coalition’s morale and increase its momentum in Negeri Sembilan. “The voters in Johor have made their choice and I believe this will also happen in Negeri Sembilan,” he said, as quoted by local media platform The Star. Azmi of Nusantara Academy for Strategic Researc said that BN fulfilled its strategic objective of calling an early election in Johor by winning more handsomely and riding the momentum into Negeri Sembilan. He added that PAS will likely support UMNO in Negeri Sembilan - repeating its strategy in Johor - even as the Islamist party tries to defend its seats in the state. IIUM’s Syaza said PH would be "in trouble" if UMNO worked with PAS either officially or tacitly to consolidate the Malay vote in Negeri Sembilan. "We see that DAP cannot even depend on non-Malay support. So for PH, it really is about trying their best to not even lose whatever support they have," she said. UMNO and PAS are Malaysia’s two largest Malay-Muslim parties and old rivals. UMNO president Zahid on Monday said that the party has no formal agreement with PAS for the Negeri Sembilan polls, apart from a general “understanding” between the two sides, local news platform Berita Harian reported. This came after PAS president Abdul Hadi Awang had reportedly said the two parties had agreed in principle for BN to defend its 14 seats in Negeri Sembilan, while PAS would contest the three it previously won. But Zahid warned people not to read too much into statements by PAS leaders, saying the party’s position could shift with political developments. While Asrul from The Asia Group said PAS could help reduce Malay vote splitting in selected constituencies, he cautioned that formal cooperation would also carry “significant risks” for UMNO. "PAS continues to be viewed cautiously by many non-Muslim voters, and an arrangement that is not handled carefully could help consolidate Malay support while costing BN part of its non-Malay base," he said. "In Malaysia’s current era of coalition politics, UMNO does not necessarily need a formal alliance with PAS. Tactical electoral understandings in selected constituencies may deliver many of the same benefits while avoiding the political costs of a nationwide pact." PAS has been courting new partners after severing ties with Bersatu in June over decision-making disagreements at the coalition level. While PAS and Bersatu remain in PN, they contested the Johor polls independently. Ong from Taylor’s University said PAS will continue to use this opportunity to see how it could "tempt" BN into some sort of electoral pact or cooperation, while using this opportunity to further weaken Bersatu. "If PAS decides to not place candidates in certain seats in order to help BN candidates, then BN will have a slight edge in Negeri Sembilan," he added. COULD NEGERI SEMBILAN RESULTS HASTEN SNAP GE? If PH puts in another poor performance in Negeri Sembilan, Ong feels this could prompt the majority of DAP delegates to vote for their party leaders to resign from their Cabinet positions at the federal level. "This will make it much more likely that a general election will be called before the end of the year as many will see that the Cabinet won’t be viable without the presence of five DAP ministers and seven DAP deputy ministers," he said. According to Loke, DAP delegates will vote to decide whether party leaders should resign as ministers, deputy ministers and other political positions at a special congress on Aug 16. There are 65 Cabinet posts in total, comprising ministers and deputy ministers. Beyond DAP, BN and perhaps the Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS) as well as the Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) coalitions could also ask Anwar to dissolve parliament to pave the way for the country’s 16th general election, Ong said. GPS and GRS make up the majority of the crucial Borneo bloc, contributing 31 seats to the unity government in the 222-seat federal parliament. PH and BN have 77 seats and 30 seats respectively. “The only question would be whether (the next general election) happens before or after the tabling of the 2027 budget, scheduled on Oct 9, 2026,” Ong said. Malaysia’s next general election must be held by February 2028. Syaza said the Negeri Sembilan results could very well be a deciding factor for a snap general election, as a poor PH result in the state would signal a loss of confidence in Anwar and put pressure on him to dissolve the federal parliament. "Johor, as we said, is unique and BN’s stronghold, so fine (that PH fared poorly). But if PH does really bad in Negeri too then it’s not a good sign. I’m sure BN would then put pressure for a new election," she said. In parliament on Tuesday, Anwar called for his government to be given time to fulfil its mandate, as he again rejected calls for an early general election. “The people also want stability. They want the economy to grow, and they do not want us to be politicking all the time,” he said in response to a PN lawmaker’s question on whether the mandate should be returned to the people amid domestic political instability and the ongoing Middle East conflict. While Azmi agreed that another strong BN performance would increase its "implicit" pressure on Anwar to call for snap polls, he thinks the premier will resist dissolving parliament to allow PH to "sort out" its issues and prevent BN from capitalising on the momentum at the federal level. Another PH setback in Negeri Sembilan would increase pressure on Anwar but not immediately threaten the federal government, Asrul said, since state elections do not change parliament’s composition. "Rather than pushing Anwar towards a snap election, it would probably make him more cautious about seeking a national mandate before PH has rebuilt support," Asrul said. Asrul said the stakes are equally high for BN chief Zahid, who will need to manage growing pressure from within UMNO to further distance his coalition from PH. Zahid has said that despite competing with PH in state elections, BN remains committed to supporting Anwar’s unity government and that ties between the two pacts remain good at the federal level. "A strong UMNO performance would embolden those calling for the party to go solo at the next general election or even abandon the ruling coalition, making the PH-UMNO relationship harder to manage even if the federal government remains intact," said Asrul.